November is still a long way off, but more and more it’s looking as if it’s going to come down to Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton when the time comes. And according to the latest polls, things don’t look so good for Trump.
This map doesn’t quite tell the whole story because some of these results are still coming in, but even based on this data, Clinton is well on her way to a general election win.
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Politico recently conducted a survey among “top operatives, strategists and activists in 10 battleground states” and the results published yesterday favor Clinton victories in these contested places to an astounding degree.
It’s important to keep in mind that what really matters in the general election is winning electoral college votes rather than coming out on top of the popular vote. And if you don’t believe that, just ask Al Gore.
The latest polls in a few key states are showing some interesting trends. For instance, in Utah, voters really, really don’t like Trump, if you didn’t know. Clinton currently leads Trump there even if only by a small margin, 48 to 46 percent. But when you consider that a Democratic nominee has not won the state of Utah in a general election in over 50 years, this is big news. Here’s how Chris Karpowitz, co-director of Brigham Young University’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, put it:
‘Wow. Wow. That’s surprising. Any matchup in which Democrats are competitive in the state of Utah is shocking.’
So even in the overwhelmingly conservative state of Utah, Clinton can give Trump a run for his money. That doesn’t bode well for the billionaire in places like Ohio, which has recently been a crucial swing state and favored Obama in the last two presidential elections.
It’s no exaggeration to say Trump hate runs high among a great many demographics. His favorability ratings have reached record-breaking lows. Women hate him, liberals hate him, even die-hard GOP voters hate him. But there’s one voter demographic in particular that might shift the race in the general election in unexpected ways. Despite Trump’s often repeated statement that “The Hispanics love me” a recent poll shows the opposite is true.
According to Latino Decisions, a nationwide survey of registered Hispanic voters found that 87 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican frontrunner. Not only is that a lot of Trump hate, it’s also likely to mean Trump will lose states with large Hispanic populations. Florida, for instance, could easily swing toward Clinton. But it’s also likely to affect the outcome in a conservative stronghold like Texas.
Of course, nothing is conclusive yet, but these latest polls sure make it look like Trump has a long painful defeat ahead of him.
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