Donald Trump is now ahead of Hillary Clinton by four percentage points, according to a new poll from Rasmussen Reports.
The results of the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of likely U.S. voters shows Trump with 43 percent of the vote compared to Clinton’s 39 percent. 12 percent of those polled would give their vote to another candidate, and 5 percent are undecided.
The numbers have completely flipped since last week’s poll, which showed Clinton with 44 percent of the vote and Trump with 39 percent. This week’s results yield the highest level of support Trump has seen in a Rasmussen matchup since October 2015. Since April, he has struggled to rise above 40 percent support.
With this being Trump’s first time with such high support, Rasmussen is skeptical about whether the trend will continue.
‘It remains to be seen whether he’s just having a good week or this actually represents a real move forward among voters.’
The graph below shows the movement of support for Clinton and Trump throughout the election, starting in October 2015. For much of the election, as the graph shows, Trump has lagged behind Clinton.
Despite prominent members of the Republican party refusing to give him their votes, Trump still has 75 percent of his party’s support. In this particular poll, he also received 14 percent of the Democratic vote. Clinton has a slightly higher percentage of support from her own party with 76 percent of the Democrat vote; however, she only receives 10 percent of the GOP vote.
Discussing factors that may have contributed to Trump’s rise and Clinton’s decline, Rasmussen points out that, on Tuesday of this week, Trump made a major speech on jobs and trade. The New York Times called this speech, “perhaps the most forceful case he has made for the crux of his candidacy…that the days of globalism have passed and that a new approach is necessary.”
Rasmussen also suggests that the attacks this week in Istanbul, Turkey may also have been beneficial to Trump, who has argued for a harsher response to radical Islamic terrorists than Clinton has.
When the voters are broken down by demographics, Clinton has a six-point lead among women, while Trump has a 14-point lead among men. The two candidates are tied among voters under 40, but Trump leads among older voters.
Clinton has a strong lead among black voters, but Trump leads among whites and, surprisingly, other minorities. Trump also has an 18-point lead when it comes to unaffiliated voters.
What the results of this poll really seem to come down to, though, is approval for President Obama. 89 percent of those who strongly approve of President Obama are in favor of Hillary Clinton. 86 percent of those who strongly disapprove of the President prefer Trump. These numbers support the argument that those who want things to remain the same as, or similar to, the way they are now prefer Clinton, while those who want change think they’re more likely to get it with Trump.
The Rasmussen Reports poll was conducted on June 28-29 and surveyed 1,000 likely voters via phone and internet. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Featured image via Wikimedia.