JUST IN: Battleground State Polls Taken Post Conventions Show A VERY Interesting Result


The CBS Background Tracker Poll gave Hillary Clinton a sliver of a lead over Donald Trump. The source of her minor boost was the Democratic National Convention [DNC]. She matched the Republican presidential candidate’s boost, and moved slightly ahead of him.

The national poll showed Clinton with 43 percent of the total support, compared to Trump’s 41 percent. After the Republican National Convention [RNC], Trump led 42 percent to her 41 percent last week.

Granted, Clinton solidified her Democratic base during the DNC, but the partisan voters remain mostly fixed. The survey interviewed voters across 11 battleground states both before and after the DNC. It did show that Clinton gained with undecided Democrats, but neither Democrats nor Republicans are changing parties.

The Democratic message is not resonating with people. Only 40 percent of any party like the way the Democrats and candidates described the state of things in America today, and 45 percent disliked it. The latter group consists primarily of independent voters who plan to vote for Donald Trump.

Voters left with mixed feelings about the Democratic convention and divided upon party lines. Overall, they felt somewhat more likely to say “hopeful” than “pessimistic” or “scared.

Over one-quarter of the Republicans, 27 percent, said Clinton’s speech and the Democrats scared them. A greater number of voters were scared after Trump’s speech at the DNC, 36 percent.

Democratic voters see a mending of the previously divided party. They strongly liked how the convention spoke about the losing Democratic presidential candidate, Bernie Sanders, and his supporters. However, Sanders’ supporters divisiveness boiled through occasionally on the convention floor.

The majority of the voters said they wanted to hear more about the economy from the Democrats. Fifty-four percent of the voters said they would have liked to have heard more about changing Washington, D.C.

Of independents, 25 percent said they felt more positively about Clinton after the convention, but that didn’t change their vote. Trump didn’t change Democrats’ views about him after the RNC, either. Republicans said their opinions of Clinton stayed the same or became worse.

The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker panel study is based upon 2211 interviews of registered voters and conducted via the internet. The interviewees were contacted, then re-contacted between July 29th and 30th, after the DNC ended.

How The Poll Was Conducted And The Margin Of Error Calculated:

For the CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker poll, the most recent wave interviewed registered voters on July 13-15, 2016 in eleven battleground states(Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,and Wisconsin) and combined single state polls in Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio. All YouGov respondents were recontacted July 15-16, 2016 for a follow-up survey on the Trump Vice Presidential announcement, were recontacted again July 22-23, 2016 for a follow-up survey at the conclusion of the Republican National convention, and finally recontacted July 29-30, 2016 for a follow-up survey at the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention.

The first wave was fielded between September 3-10, 2015, with 4860 respondents, and the second wave fieldwork was completed between October 15-22, 2015, with 3952 respondents and the third wave between November 15-19, 2015. The fourth wave was fielded between December 13-17, 2015. The majority of the 2nd-4th wave respondents are recontacted panelists. The first 4 waves consist of interviews in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina only.

The fifth wave added new interviews in Florida, Georgia, and Texas,and was completed between January 17-21, 2016. The sixth wave was fielded only in South Carolina, with interviews completed February 10-12, 2016. The seventh wave was aso fielded in February, among panelists in Georgia, Texas, and Virginia. The eighth wave fielded February 22-26, 2016, and recontacted panelists from the January wave in Georgia and Texas.

Virginia respondents were all new to the panel. The ninth wave was fielded to new respondents in Michigan from March 2-4, 2016. In addition, respondents in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio were contacted March 9-11, 2016. Respondents in New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were contacted March 29-April 1, 2016 for the tenth wave. In the eleventh wave of primary surveys, respondents in California, New York, and Pennsylvania were contacted April 13-15, 2016.

The twelfth was conducted April 20-22, 2016 and interviewed panelists in Indiana and Pennsylvania. The thirteenth wave was the first general election poll, and was conducted of registered voters in Florida and Ohio May 16-19, 2016. The fourteenth wave was fielded May 31-June 3, 2016, and consists of registered voters in California and New Jersey, interviewing both those likely to vote in the November general election and the upcoming Democratic primary election. The fifteenth wave of the Battleground Tracker interviewed registered voters in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin from June 21-24, 2016.Respondents were selected from YouGovs and two other online panels.

These are “opt-in” panels which are open for anyone to join. However, YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 24017 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1821 phone recruits. Recontact rates ranged from 34% to 75% for each state for the reinterview waves. In addition, new respondents were selected from the YouGov panel each wave.For the October, November, and December waves, all respondents from previous waves were contacted to participate.

In the January wave, all respondents from previous waves in Iowa, New Hampshire, and SouthCarolina were contacted to participate. Florida, Georgia, and Texas are completely new interviews. In the February wave, all respondents from previous South Carolina waves were contacted to participate. In the March wave, all respondents from the previous Florida wave were invited to participate. All respondents from the New York survey in late March were invited to participate in the April wave.

In the June 21-24,2016 survey, all respondents from the previous Florida general election poll (conducted May 16-19, 2016) were invited to participate. Approximately 60% of the October wave consists of reinterviews, with the remainder coming from new additions. Approximately 70% of the November wave consists of reinterviews from the previous waves,approximately 90% of the December and January waves consist of reinterviews. Approximately 84% of the February South Carolina wave consists of reinterviews.

Featured Image: DonkeyHotey via Flickr, Creative Commons License, minor modification.
H/T: CBS News.

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