Hillary Clinton just shot past Donald Trump on a considerable post-convention bump, according to the Morning Consult national survey. The poll was taken in the days immediately after the Democratic National Convention [DNC] in Philadelphia.
The poll shows the Democratic nominee surging ahead of Donald Trump, 43 percent to 40 percent, which is a 7-point bump from the previous poll. That number takes into consideration Trump’s Republican bump, which gave him a temporary lead over the former Secretary of State. Overall, the post-convention bump gives Clinton a significant 4 percentage point lead over Trump.
|Head to head||July 29-30||July 22-24||July 14-16|
|Don’t Know/No Opinion||17%||16%||20%|
After both conventions, almost one in five voters are still undecided, 17 percent. That is only down 3 percent points from the July 16 poll, which showed 20 percent were undecided.
So, what was the source of Clinton’s recent increase? It came from independent voters and an increase in male voters. Clinton has moved ahead of Trump among men, 43 percent to his 42 percent. Just last week, Trump had a substantial lead over Clinton among men of 8 percentage points.
Clinton also moved another 4 percentage points from independent voters into her column compared to last week’s poll.
One of the largest blocks of Clinton voters is millennials, where she carries 53 percent support. Slightly more than one-fourth of millennials support Trump. However, he carries voters 65 and older by 52 percent compared to Clinton’s 34 percent.
|General-Election Matchup||July 29-30||July 22-24||July 16-18||July 8-10|
|Don’t Know/No Opinion||12%||13%||15%||13%|
The two conventions impacted voter sentiment across the aisle. Following the Cleveland Republican National Convention [RNC], 42 percent of voters viewed Trump favorably compared to Clinton’s 37 percent. Then, after the Democrat’s convention, voters viewed Clinton favorably 43 percent to Trump’s 39 percent.
When Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is added to the mix, Clinton still takes the advantage, leading Trump by 5 points in a three-way race. Johnson has consistently held 10 to 12 percentage points for the past month. He needs 15 percent of the pie before he can participate in the first presidential debate on September 26.
Morning Consult surveyed 1,931 registered voters. The margin of error for this poll was a very close 2 +/- percentage points.