Nate Silver Releases 2018 Senate & House Predictions; It’s Very Good News

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Republican Ron Estes has won the Mike Pompeo seat in the Special election yesterday against Democrat James Thompson, even though there was initially a large swing vote to the Democrats.

The seat, which was vacated by Mike Pompeo who left it to work as President Trump’s CIA director, has been held by Republicans for decades. The district went for Trump by 27 points, so this was not at all expected to be a difficult race.

Estes won the election by only 7 points. In comparison to his predecessor Mike Pompeo who won the seat by 31 points just five months ago, this doesn’t look like the huge victory that Trump seems to think it is. Trump, in his usual fashion, took to twitter to gloat about this “great win.”

This tweet rings false as it was not even close to an easy win for Estes, with Republicans funneling money into Estes towards the end it is evident that they had begun to panic as to whether Estes actually would take it home for them. Even the president himself placed phone calls pleading that voters vote with Estes, promising he would be helping Trump with “big things.”

Nate Silver, editor-in-chief at Five Thirty Eight, was not having any of Trump’s bragging, and took to twitter himself.

Shortly after he added:

In a victory speech, Estes mocked the pundits and media who ever believed that the seat wasn’t going to be his.

“The pundits were talking about — this wasn’t a seat we were going to win. That we were going to lose a Republican seat, that it was a special election, that it was a chance for the Democrats, they were motivated, there was a lot of angst against the president. But we really showed the pundits tonight, didn’t we?”

While the outcome of yesterday’s election may come as a disappointment for those who favored Democrat James Thompson, the numbers are great news for Democrats going forward. As Silver pointed out in his tweets if other states followed suit with this close vote, the Democrats have many more opportunities going forward to beat out the Republicans.

 

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