In a new Morning Consult survey measuring voters’ attitudes in the ongoing U.S. Senate race in South Carolina, Lindsey Graham is losing by 2 percent. Graham, of course, is the incumbent, and he’s the current Republican chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee and a close ally of the president. South Carolina isn’t exactly known as a hotspot for Democratic successes, but even there, Lindsey Graham is struggling to secure his campaign with less than two weeks to go until Election Day. In the Morning Consult survey, Graham’s Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison had 47 percent of the support, while Graham had 45.
#NEW South Carolina Poll:
Harrison (D) 47%
Graham (R-Inc) 45%@MorningConsult10/11-10/20, LV
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 22, 2020
The South Carolina Senate race has been close throughout recent polling. A recent Siena College/ New York Times poll had Graham ahead by 6 percent — but a Quinnipiac University survey from the latter half of last month had the two candidates tied. Meanwhile, a Data for Progress survey from the early part of this month had Harrison ahead by 1 percent. The Cook Political Report rates the South Carolina Senate race as a toss-up as of Thursday, although FiveThirtyEight estimated as of that same point that Graham had an about 76 percent chance of securing a victory. Even the FiveThirtyEight forecast provides a solidly about one-in-four chance of an upset win for Harrison, and the nation’s experience with polls in 2016 makes it clear that upset wins are a real possibility.
Democrats have a more solid path to victory in other ongoing U.S. Senate races. The Cook Political Report rates a total of nine currently GOP-held Senate seats as either toss-ups or leaning Democratic with less than two weeks to go until Election Day. Democrats are most favored in Colorado and Arizona, but Democrats also have strong showings in the polls in North Carolina and even in Georgia. In Georgia, as of Thursday afternoon, FiveThirtyEight estimates that Democratic candidate Raphael Warnock has the best chance of an eventual victory in a special election for one of the state’s U.S. Senate seats.
Republican candidates for Senate aren’t the only Republicans on the ballot who have been struggling. With less than two weeks until Election Day, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden seems like the clear favorite in the presidential race. He maintains sizable leads in national-level polling that have repeatedly been significantly larger than Hillary Clinton’s leads at equivalent points of the 2016 cycle, and Biden also leads in swing states around the country.
