The caucuses are so much fun! The air is electric with reporters from all over the world popping in to interview us, and our candidate dropping by to support us. I worked in Howard Dean’s (D-Vt), Des Moines headquarters in 2004. I would be back there at Bernie Sanders’, D-Vt., headquarters in a hot minute, if I could. Right now, Sanders is polling with a slight edge over Hillary Clinton.
The world loves an underdog, especially when he scrabbled up to the top, competing with what many considered the pre-ordained, first-woman president, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Then, there is Donald Trump leading the other national divide, driving the Republicans crazy when he breaks all the establishment rules. The GOP members are beside themselves with the citizens’ rebellion against the status-quo. Even if Trump lost, by some strange twist of fate, second choice Cruz is equally bad, or worse, in his own warped way.
So, what is going on in this stranger-than-usual kaleidoscope of politics? Sanders and Trump, oddly enough, have this vital fact in common: they have big leads among the first-timers caucusers. These two men had to find people who had never been involved in politics before, and they did! Now, all of us have to wait to see whether or not the first-timers get themselves out to attend the right caucus at the right time.
Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said:
‘The size of the turnout tonight will likely be the key factor, especially on the Democratic side. High turnouts with lots of new caucus participants likely would mean a good night for Sen. Bernie Sanders, and for Donald Trump.’
Let’s take a quick look at the poll numbers, released Monday, looking at the Democrats first:
CANDIDATE PERCENTAGE*
Bernie Sanders 49
Hillary Clinton 46
AMONG FIRST-TIME CAUCUSERS
Bernie Sanders 69
Hillary Clinton 35
AMONG PREVIOUS VOTERS
Bernie Sanders 41
Hillary Clinton 52
Now for the Republican polls numbers:
CANDIDATE PERCENT*
Donald Trump 31
Ted Cruz 23
Marco Rubio 17
Ben Carson 08
AMONG FIRST-TIME CAUCUSERS
Donald Trump 40
Ted Cruz 22
AMONG PREVIOUS VOTERS
Donald Trump 25
Ted Cruz 26
The Quinnipiac University conducted their poll from January 25-31. The GOP held its final presidential debate on January 28, but Trump chose not to participate.
Nearly 25 percent of those interviewed said that they could still change their minds. Live interviewers conducted all interviews by calling both land lines and cell phones.
*These numbers are within the margin of error, which is 4 percent.
Featured Image: Phil Roeder via Flickr, Creative Commons
H/T: Rawstorycom and Quinnipiac University Polls
