New Moody’s Analytics Model Predicts This Party To Win And It Has Been Right For 35 Years


Moody’s Analytics Firm has just issued their latest prediction, in the form of an economic model, for which Party will win the White House in the November 2016 election. The situation, as predicted since all the way back in August of 2015, still doesn’t look good for the Republicans.

Of course, what could look good for the so-called Party of Lincoln when they have Donald Trump as a front runner and probable nominee? Trump has been said to have the lowest favorability ratings of any candidate, with numbers that have only gotten worse as more people have heard about him in the course of the race. As of March 12, there were 33% more people who have an unfavorable view of Trump versus a favorable one.

Now, the economic election model produced by Moody’s Analytics predicts that the Democratic Party will win the White House based off of, of all things, low gas prices and lower household income. According to the analysts, if either of these indicators were to change, the election would be in the Republicans’ favor, but they do not see much possibility of such an event occurring. Of course, one can rather easily see, socially, why this is the case: As people acquire more money, it is the rare individual who does not become complacent and therefore side with the establishment economics and politics of the Republicans.

The measure of the change needed to shift the model in the favor of the GOP would be a sharp increase in gas prices, all the way up to $3.53 a gallon, although current estimates put Election Day gas prices at around $2.93 a gallon. Another factor in the model is the approval rating of President Obama, which currently sits at 52 percent, and would have to drop to 45.7 percent to shift the model in the favor of the Republicans.

There are contradicting models to the one produced by Moody’s, however — but neither of the two in question, which both have predicted wins for the Republicans, even with Trump as the GOP’s nominee, are as necessarily reliable as the one by Moody’s.

The first, made by Yale University Professor Ray Fair, was wrong as recently as 4 years ago, predicting at that time a narrow win for Incumbent President Obama’s challenger Mitt Romney. Fair predicted, back in January, a 45.66 percent share of the vote for Democrats come November, based off of below-average and below-optimum economic growth for the tail end of President Obama’s term.

The other recent model, produced by Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz and looking to a win for the GOP, based its numbers off of a 50 percent approval rating for the current President come election time. However, that number has spiked to 52 percent, and the Abramowitz model has only been accurate since 1992, compared to the 35+ years and 100% accuracy rate for that produced by Moody’s.

Of course, as noted by some, but not all, of the analysts, and as evidenced by the crazy-low approval ratings for Donald Trump, the increasing possibility of a nominee on the right who is not Trump, and the raucous race on the Democratic side, personalities could throw all the models into a tailspin. The models themselves, however, are party-based, rather than candidate based.

Featured Image via Flickr, available under a Creative Commons license.