In shocking new developments, Donald Trump is closer to the White House than he may have ever been up until now. A brand new general election matchup poll has Trump with 41% of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 39%. This is the first time he has ever been in the lead over Clinton since the race has thinned and the real candidates have come out. Last week’s version of this same poll had Clinton and Trump tied at 38%.
This development is so breaking that it is has not yet been factored into the polling averages at Huffington Post or Real Clear Politics. At each of those respective outlets, Clinton is still in the lead. According to the HuffPost average, Clinton is currently at about an 8% lead. This number is backed up by a 7.3% lead in the Real Clear Politics average. You can see the HuffPost average graph below.
But that was before today, and before what today’s breaking released poll represents. The populist, also known as “revolutionary” (hint, hint) fervor, is swelling out of control. Among supporters of the madly persistent Democratic underdog, US Senator Bernie Sanders, at least 1 in 3 said they would not vote for Hillary Clinton should she become the nominee. These persons constitute the so-called “Bernie or Bust” movement.
And that makes sense, and up until now has had no visible effect on the potential general election outcome. Sanders has rocked the boat the most among fringe voters. He wins among Independents who lean left, and among the under 40 crowd. Clinton generally wins in the consistent Democratic party base, such as among the African American population of the Southern United States.
So it’s all in character for these 1 in 3 Sanders supporters to say they wouldn’t vote for Clinton. They weren’t that interested in politics in the first place.
And people who are either expressly a part of this movement or involved by ideological association are the reason for the Trump lead in this latest poll. 15% of respondents said they would “prefer some other candidate.” Most of these people are Bernie or Bust’ers. A much smaller number is probably made up of “Never Trump” individuals. 5% of poll respondents said they were undecided.
The margin of error for the poll was 5%. The margin of error is that number by which the actual results may differ from the reported results. In other words, this poll is a virtual tie. The real results could be plus or minus 5% in either direction.
The respective candidates are the likely -but far from certain -respective nominees. On the Republican side, the race may be made or broken based off of who wins the Indiana primary tomorrow. Should US Senator Ted Cruz score a possible win, he will be well on his way to blocking Trump from securing a majority of delegates. You can see the Five Thirty Eight graph for the possibility of a Cruz win in Indiana below. Should Trump win, he may be well on his way to securing that slightly elusive majority.
Over on the Democratic side, Sanders continues to score enough wins to keep him as a viable competitor, although Clinton remains in the lead. A measure of uncertainty will remain in the race until the biggest state, California, votes on June 7. All projections have Sanders crushing Trump in a head to head matchup.