Bernie Sanders has been declared the winner of the Indiana Democratic primary, beating Hillary Clinton. Polls gave Clinton a solid lead heading into today’s election but polls had been wrong many times already. Five Thirty Eight analysts had her a 91% chance of a win as of early this morning, as you can see below.
— Daily Mail US (@DailyMail) May 4, 2016
Sanders, after today’s election, could mathematically make a comeback to win the nomination. He has consistently notched just enough wins in order to be able to have a chance to do so and hopes for a contested convention, where the superdelegates will decide the nominating race in his favor. He would be able to have a chance at that by winning just enough to keep Clinton from a majority of pledged delegates.
And he just might be able to do just that. He is barely behind Clinton in California polls. A win in California for the Senator would make huge stride towards that goal, as it is the largest prize on the primary calendar.
Although the pollsters predicted a Clinton win as of this morning, the odds were on Sanders’s side that he could score an upset. Indiana is an open primary, meaning that any registered voter can vote for any candidate. That is great news for the Senator, who crushes all opposition among fringe voters such as Independents.
But he could do anything, and what he is statistically likely to do is a very different story. Unless he notches a win in California, coupled with smaller wins leading up to that state’s primary on June 7, he’s out.
The odds are in his favor in the state. As previously mentioned, he is barely behind in the polls. In addition, the demographics — and election type — of the state leans heavily in his favor. Nonaffiliated voters can vote in the California Democratic primary, and the state is largely young and White. All of that is great news, since under precisely those circumstances is precisely where he has done his best.