Hillary Clinton is barely ahead of likely general election opponent Donald Trump according to a brand new poll released on Tuesday. Her lead is just larger than the margin of error for the poll. (The margin of error is that margin by which the actual results may differ from the reported numbers.)
The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, has the Democratic front runner at 42% to Trump’s 38% support in a hypothetical general election match up. It was conducted among 1,222 potential voters via both landline interview and via online survey during the period of May 6 through May 9. Notably, this absence of cell phone interviews has skewed poll numbers in Clinton’s favor in the past. In addition, online surveys are notoriously inaccurate because of the ease with which participants can just drop out.
Outside of this poll’s accuracy, her lead here and elsewhere is barely an indication that she is a shoe in for November. With regards to polls, Trump has come out on top twice. The most recent recorded lead for Trump was via Rasmussen polls via a survey conducted from April 27-28.
On Trump’s side as well is the fact that both he and Clinton have rock bottom favorability ratings. In that light, the power of wooing is everything. Trump, as a long time businessman, has much more of such an ability than perceptibly stone cold Hillary Clinton.
In addition, Clinton and Trump are neck and neck in the swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. Quinnipiac University polling has Clinton 1 point ahead of Trump in Florida and Pennsylvania. Trump is ahead of Clinton by 4% in Ohio. Both leads for Clinton are well within the margins of error for the respective polls, while the margin of error for the Ohio poll is 3%.
The Real Clear Politics Polling average for Trump vs. Clinton has her maintaining her lead at just over a 6% margin.
The Huffington Post average has her up by about 15%, as you can see below. Huffington Post margins are routinely above and more stable than those found elsewhere.
Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee, after trouncing his remaining two opponents in the Indiana Primary last Tuesday. The now distressed “Never Trump” crowd on the right has already been looking for a third party candidate to take out the GOP front runner, but not yet with any success.
On the left, Hillary Clinton is the front runner but not presumptive winner of the race for the Democratic nomination. With Bernie Sanders likely to score a win in West Virginia, and increasingly likely to score upset wins for the remainder of the primary calendar, the Democratic convention is likely to be contested. At that point, the nominee is decided by unpledged superdelegates. Most of these persons who have expressed their allegiance up until now are backing Clinton, helping to solidify her clear advantage.