JUST IN: New Swing State Polls Released Show Just One Democrat Easily Beating Donald Trump

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No candidate since 1960 has won the presidential race without winning two of three swing states: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Bernie Sanders wins over Donald Trump in all three key states, but Hillary Clinton and Trump are running neck and neck there, according to the just-released Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll. And it gets even more interesting.

“This election may be good for divorce lawyers,” says Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polls:

‘The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump. In Pennsylvania, Clinton’s 19-point lead among women matches Trump’s 21-point margin among men.’

‘In Ohio, she is up 7 points among women but down 15 points with men. In Florida she is up 13 points among women but down 13 points among men.’

Both Clinton and Trump rate high in negative favorability ratings, if you compare them to Sanders. Brown continues:

‘Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call.’

‘At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and 2012. And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida.’

Brown also says:

‘Trump would do a better job handling the economy, voters say. He also would do a better job handling terrorism, voters in Florida and Ohio say. Pennsylvania voters are divided. ‘

‘By wide margins, voters in all three states say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by smaller margins, voters in all three states say she has higher moral standards.’

Assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll Tim Malloy says:

‘Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are locked in Pennsylvania and they have similar, awful numbers on honesty and favorability.’

‘The one glaring difference: Trump is crushed on the question of which candidate has the temperament and personality to handle an international crisis. It’s a vote of confidence the Clinton camp can dine out on and Trump supporters have to see as a red flag.’

Trump and Clinton receive about the same support from their own parties, but there are few cross-overs:

‘Eighty-one percent of Democrats said they would vote for Clinton, while 80 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Trump.’

‘Only 5 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Clinton, and 6 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Trump. Among independents, Trump led Clinton 40 percent to 37 percent.’

A surprising result in the polls is how many people say they will not vote in November:

‘Compared to this time in 2012, a significantly greater number of voters said they planned to skip the November election.’

‘A May 2012 Quinnipiac University poll showed similarly low levels of partisan crossover support. Meanwhile, 1 percent of Democrats, 1 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of independents said they wouldn’t vote.’

‘But in Tuesday’s poll, 7 percent of Republicans, 7 percent of Democrats and 11 percent of independents said they plan to skip the November election.’

The poll interviewed 3,170 voters on land lines and cell phones from the three swing states. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Featured Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr. Creative Commons License, some modification.

H/T: Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll.