This morning, Real Clear Politics laid down their first major projection for which party will win the White House in November. Their model assumes that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will be the Republican and Democratic nominees, respectively.
Still, that is nearly an irrelevant variable. Trump, after trouncing his opponents in the Indiana Primary just over a week ago, became the presumptive GOP nominee. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is the front runner, but only Bernie Sanders does better against Trump. You can see one of the latest poll averages of such a match up below, via the Huffington Post. Sanders is almost 15% ahead of Trump.
You can check out the Real Clear Politics map below. The range of coloration goes from dark blue for strong Clinton to dark red for strong Trump. 227 electoral votes are in the probably Democratic category, while only 143 fall on the Republican side. 168 electoral votes are rated as up for grabs. In other words, the race is far from decided, but Clinton -or Sanders- has the clear advantage going into election day. 2 electoral votes are needed for a win on that fateful November Tuesday.
The faded out states are listed as tossups. Hillary Clinton has strong followings in the 3 largest of these states, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, due to her large support among minority and upper income bracket individuals. Trump, though, is either right behind her or ahead of her in the polls in all 3 of them, so the lead is, again, far from certain.Still, Trump is gaining, slowly but steadily. Since his assumption of the title of “presumptive nominee,” he has turned his fire on Hillary Clinton, and the results have not been pretty. Clinton has tried to shore up her losses, but she has less of a forceful persona. Voters literally hate both Trump and Clinton, while they love Sanders. So, among the two front runners, getting voters literally comes down to manipulation. And, as a businessman and experienced wielder of the lawsuit, Trump just has better manipulation skills.
The formerly large gap between Trump and the Democrats has closed to only about 6 points when pitting Trump against Clinton. According to the numbers, a Trump win is unlikely, but increasingly possible. Of course, anything is possible, so Trump fans shouldn’t get their hopes up.
This Real Clear Politics prediction goes right along with steadily increasing volumes of similar predictions. Analysts continue to predict a Clinton/Democratic win based off of poll numbers, based off of economic models, and based off of everything in between.
A month ago, the Huffington Post ran an election projection that, while not quite as rosy for the left, still projected a win. You can see their chart below. As you can see, leaving no tossups, the map gives Clinton 328 electoral votes to Trump’s 210. Again, 270 are needed to win.
The analysis they presented was based upon “an extensive Morning Consult analysis of 44,000 poll respondents.”
As already mentioned, it is only going to get more unprecedented as the two front runners pull out all the stops to try and buy votes. November, here we come.