A brand new poll released Friday morning has Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton effectively tied in a theoretical general election match up. Clinton, the Democratic front runner, comes in with 48% support, compared to 46% support for the presumptive GOP nominee, Trump. The margin of error, that margin by which the real results may be off compared to the reported numbers, is 2.5%. The 2 point margin then, by which Clinton can claim a lead according to this poll, is within the margin of error.
This poll comes days after a Public Policy Polling survey showed Clinton 4% ahead of Trump. (That poll has a 3.2% margin of error — barely any better news.) And it comes a short while after a Rasmussen Reports survey showed Trump ahead of Clinton by 2%.
In other words, the Democratic establishment pushing that Clinton is not only the inevitable nominee, but also the inevitable next President of the United States just let out a long and drawn out gasp. Their denial is evident in the title of a piece covering this poll from The Hill, saying, “Clinton leads Trump by 2 points nationwide.”
Interestingly, a similar title from earlier in the election cycle was more accurate, and said: “Clinton, Sanders in statistical tie in Indiana.” Sanders went on to win the Indiana primary.
Trump, since becoming the presumptive nominee, has turned even more of his fire on Hillary, and it’s not going well for the Democrats.
The Huffington Post polling average still has Clinton about 6% ahead of Trump. Huffington Post normally reports the widest margins, and you can see their chart below.
The Real Clear Politics polling average isn’t much different, though. The margin of difference there is just under 6%.
Bernie Sanders, the Democratic underdog, continues to do better against Trump than Clinton. Just look at the Huffington Post average for the general election matchup of Trump vs. Sanders. Sanders is ahead by almost 15 points.
Over at Real Clear Politics, Sanders is up by an even 13%, and the two haven’t been close this year. You can see their chart below.
But, can Sanders still win the nomination? Maybe. Every vote counts more than ever going into these next weeks, the final ones on the primary calendar. Sanders and the rest of the Democratic party are likely on their way to a contested convention. Under such circumstances, the nominee is decided by wooing the unpledged delegates, also known as superdelegates. Sanders has a compelling case to present, which includes these very numbers discussed here.
Frankly, according to the numbers, Sanders is the much stronger Democratic candidate to take on the GOP/Trump machine in November. People don’t hate Sanders, while Clinton has, along with Trump, some of the lowest approval ratings ever.
But, maybe this poll is a fluke. Does Trump really have a chance against Clinton?
Yes. A slowly coming from behind chance, but it’s still a chance. He is within the margin of error behind or ahead of Clinton in 3 crucial general election swing states: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
This latest poll was conducted by One America News Network and Gravis Marketing. Gravis Marketing is only given a C rating by the analysts at Five Thirty Eight.