When it comes to “battleground” states, a new report from Bloomberg reveals that Democrats have an advantage over Republicans in four of the states that are likely to play a central role in the upcoming presidential election. The four states where liberals lead in registered voters are Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Republicans have a lead in Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire.
There are ten battleground states total. Those mentioned above, plus Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. These three states don’t register voters by party, though, so it is unclear who has a lead in them.
The states in which Democrats are leading are particularly significant because of the high number of electoral votes that come from them compared to the Republican-led states. The states in which Democrats have an advantage have a combined total of 70 electoral votes, while those in which Republicans are favored only have 19.
You can see the results for voter registration in seven of the ten battleground states below, courtesy of Bloomberg.
It is important to note that it is still too early to tell whether Democrats or Republicans will actually win the states that they currently have advantages in. Much can happen between now and the election in November. People in most states still have plenty of time to register, and numbers could end up swinging dramatically in one direction or the other.
Bloomberg predicts that “the drive to register new voters will accelerate throughout the summer and fall, with the parties, non-profit organizations and the campaigns spending millions to gain an advantage.”
Speaking on these attempts to gain an advantage, Pratt Wiley, national voter outreach director for the Democratic National Committee, says that, “in a handful of states, it’s already begun.” He lists Ohio as an example, saying that the Buckeye State has a field team in place with the primary task of registering voters that is expected to grow exponentially throughout the campaign season.
With Republicans currently behind Democrats when it comes to voter registration, they have said that they are attempting to make that a greater focus in 2016. In order to increase voter registration, the RNC, calling it “conservative community organizing,” has used its nationwide voter database to create community “turfs,” with more 1,300 of them in battleground states. These areas include volunteers and paid staff who “work to register new voters and make contact with independents and infrequent Republican voters.”
Their plan seems to be working, too, as volunteers have apparently registered 16,570 new Republican voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina, and Virginia.
When it comes to which groups of people Republicans and Democrats are going to try and sway, the predictions line up pretty well with what most people already think. For example, Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, has said that Democrats will likely be focusing their attention of the Hispanic vote, since “Trump is truly despised among Hispanics.”
On the flip side, Republicans, Abramowitz predicts, are more likely to try to register more working-class white voters — the demographic among which Trump is the most popular — particularly in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Despite all the efforts being made on both sides, though, Abamowitz remains skeptical about dramatic changes to the electorate or the overall voter turnout. He said about what should be expected come November:
‘It’s hard to change the electorate very much in a presidential year. Both parties are going to be working hard to increase registration and turnout and only a fraction of those not voting [in the past] are going to be responsive to those efforts.’