Moody’s General Election Model Has Not Been Wrong For 35 Years – They Say This Party Is On Top

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Moody’s Analytics Firm just updated their 2016 general election model based off of pertinent factors, including United States economic performance in the month of May. Their latest update continues to maintain the projection that the Democratic candidate in November is getting ready to cruise to victory. The same projection of relatively easy victory applies to both Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton and underdog Bernie Sanders.

The model incorporates several factors into making its projections, including, as mentioned, economic performance. The model also incorporates President Obama’s approval rating. According to The Hill, factoring in the outgoing Commander in Chief’s approval rating is a new feature of the model, which has been utilized, with 100 percent accuracy, since 1980.

Dan White, one of the economists in charge of the model, noted regarding said rating that:

‘President Obama’s approval rating has crossed over the important 50 percent threshold for the first time in almost four years. This sudden surge could be a result of the messy primary season or a relative lull in geopolitical news from overseas.’

The dramatic spike in said rating helps cement the election in favor of the Democrats.

Below, you can see the Huffington Post graph of the average of President Obama’s approval rating since the beginning of his two terms. It represents the average, which is why the number isn’t actually above 50 percent. The crossing of that threshold came in an individual Gallup poll conducted from May 17 through May 19.

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Besides this model, Clinton also maintains her lead in the polls, although the margin of her lead has shrunk lately to just over 2 percent, according to the Huffington Post. Below, you can see the Huffington Post’s graph of the results of such a general election match up polling over time.

pollster-2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton-1-1024x614 Moody's General Election Model Has Not Been Wrong For 35 Years - They Say This Party Is On Top Election 2016 Top Stories

In other words, sure, the shrinking gap in the polls shows that Trump has a chance against Clinton, but his chance is a long shot.

Still, the observer shouldn’t take anything for granted. Models just like this one predicted that Trump has no chance of ever clinching the Republican nomination. And, it is now well known that the supposedly much stronger Republican candidates like Ted Cruz and John Kasich are long gone.

Bernie Sanders is still the Democratic candidate with the much better chance of scoring a resounding win against Trump, as far as can be told based off current polls. Below you can see the graph of the general election match up polling over time via the Huffington Post, which shows Sanders with about an 11 percent lead over Trump.

pollster-2016-general-election-trump-vs-sanders-1-1024x614 Moody's General Election Model Has Not Been Wrong For 35 Years - They Say This Party Is On Top Election 2016 Top Stories

Other models, as mentioned, predict a similar scenario to the one produced by Moody’s. The Real Clear Politics (RCP) projection also gives Trump basically zero chance of scoring a win. It has him with only 143 electoral votes compared to Clinton’s 227, with 168 rated as toss ups.

You can see the map below, detailing the electoral vote by electoral vote forecast, with dark blue to dark red representing the range from strong Clinton to strong Trump territory.

rcpgenelexmap Moody's General Election Model Has Not Been Wrong For 35 Years - They Say This Party Is On Top Election 2016 Top Stories

When pitting Trump against Sanders, the country is slightly more polarized, but still heavily in favor of the Democrats. RCP has, under such circumstances, 251 votes in Sanders’s column and 153 for Trump, with 134 rated as toss ups.

You can see RCP’s Trump vs. Sanders map below.

rcpgenelextrumovssanders Moody's General Election Model Has Not Been Wrong For 35 Years - They Say This Party Is On Top Election 2016 Top Stories

Featured Image via Erik Hersman on Flickr, Available Under a Creative Commons License.