Probable general election competitors Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are coming dramatically close to one another in two swing states, according to a brand new poll.
In a general election match up in Florida, Clinton is only 1 percent ahead of Trump, with 43 percent of the vote to Trump’s 42 percent. Although a Trump versus Sanders match up in Florida was not a part of this latest poll, the Real Clear Politics polling average for such a scenario has Sanders ahead by only 0.5 percent. The polling has taken a slight shift in Sanders’ favor since the beginning of this year.
In Ohio, Clinton is apparently doing better than in Florida, with 44 percent support to Trump’s 39 percent. In Ohio, according to the analysts responsible for the poll, Clinton is helped by the general centrism of the state’s Republican voters. Many of these voters cast their support behind the state’s Governor and former presidential candidate, John Kasich, and many of these voters cannot imagine supporting a candidate like Donald Trump. Some have reportedly gone over to the Clinton side in a general election match up, as have other centrist and establishment sectors of the GOP who absolutely hate Trump.
As for a Sanders versus Trump match up in Ohio, this latest poll has Sanders ahead by 9 percent. The Real Clear Politics average for the same scenario has Sanders ahead by 5 percent. The situation hasn’t changed much in the state this year, with one poll from early March also having Sanders up by 9 percent.
These poll numbers show Trump to be inching closer to a chance at overtaking Clinton, although it is still quite far off. One of the most potent variables of the election is the two front runners’ personalities, and the fact that both are hated at record levels. Working in Trump’s favor in such regard is that he is by far the stronger personality of the two front runners. If Trump can woo over the at least 1 in 3 Clinton supporters who are only voting for her because they don’t like him, he’s all set.
Even Clinton’s primary competitor Sanders acknowledged, though, that Clinton is still the favored candidate versus Trump going into the general election. On CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday, Sanders related to Jake Tapper, “I’m not saying she cannot beat Donald Trump. I think she can. There’s a good chance she can.”
Still, Sanders continues to use his apparently better chance at scoring a Democratic win in November as leverage while he tries to clinch the nomination. In the same interview he told Tapper:
‘Any objective assessment of our campaign versus Clinton’s camp, I think, will conclude we have the energy, we have the excitement, we have the young people, we have the working people, we can drive a large voter turnout so that we not only win the White House but we regain control of the Senate.’
Sanders has potential among those almost 1 in 2 Clinton supporters who only support her to stop Trump, but the stakes remain high in the Democratic primary race looking ahead to California’s primary on June 7. Sanders needs to score a resounding win there to give him a chance, and a good one at that, at becoming the Democratic nominee for president. He is just behind Clinton in the polls coming out of that state, the biggest prize on the entire primary calendar.
The poll was conducted May 16 through May 19 among 1000 voters in each state by CBS News as a “Battleground Tracker poll.” The poll was actually conducted by a firm called YouGov, which is given only a C+ reliability and accuracy rating by the analysts at Five Thirty Eight.