A new poll released today shows that Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is still leading Donald Trump. But her lead is narrowing. The NBC/ Wall Street Journal poll shows that Trump has reduced Clinton’s lead to a mere three points. Clinton is currently leading Trump 46 to 43, but those results are within the poll’s margin of error and her lead is much smaller than it was a month ago. A similar poll released in April showed Clinton ahead by 11 points. The fact that Trump has reduced her lead by eight points in a single month could indicate that the former Secretary of State is in for a tough fight this November.
In a continuing trend, Bernie Sanders leads Donald Trump 54 to 39 adding weight to the Senator’s arguments that he is the strongest candidate to take on Trump in November. Sanders’ chances of winning the nomination are still a long shot, but he maintains there is still hope and is currently hoping to persuade the party’s super delegates to his cause.
Despite her dwindling lead, Clinton still maintains a strong core of support among minority communities, with the former First Lady being favored by Black voters 88 to nine percent and Latino voters 68 to 20 percent. This is consistent with Clinton’s performance in the primaries, where strong support among minority voters helped her carry the South over her opponent Bernie Sanders. Additionally, Clinton enjoys wide support among women – currently leading Trump 51 to 38. Clinton also has more support among millennial voters leading 55 to 32 though those voters have largely backed Sanders during most primary contests.
Trump maintains a strong lead with male voters at 52% to 36%, seniors at 52% to 41%, independents at 42% to 37% and men with a lead of 49% to 40%. Trump’s lead with independent voters isn’t all that surprising considering he has been running as an outsider and people who are fed up with the politics of both parties – as independents often are – might be more likely to support a perceived-outsider like Trump. That has really been Clinton’s biggest challenge this entire campaign. In a year when many voters are tired of politicians, Clinton is running as the most mainstream candidate. It is looking likely that her core of support within the Democratic Party will propel her to victory over Sanders, but whether she can turn that momentum into a general election victory remains to be seen.
A problem that both Clinton and Trump will need to overcome is their sky-high unfavorablity numbers. The poll shows that 54% of voters have an unfavorable view of Clinton whereas 58% have an unfavorable view of Trump. As mentioned above, Clinton’s problems can be partially blamed on the anti-establishment sentiment that is running through this current election. She is,without a doubt, a very intelligent and qualified candidate, but she also has issues with trustworthiness that have been a constant problem for her campaign. Her opponent, Sanders, has consistently been rated as more trustworthy than Clinton and enjoys a more positive opinion among voters than either Trump or Clinton.
Trump’s biggest problem is the simple fact that he is a very polarizing figure. His policies and statements are often offensive, especially to minorities, and that is likely a contributing factor in his unpopularity. Ultimately, this is just one poll and, like all polls, should be taken with a grain of salt. If it says anything definitive, it’s that this could be a much closer election than either Trump or Clinton would like.
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