While neither party has officially declared their nominee, it’s pretty clear the Democrat Hillary Clinton will be facing Republican Donald Trump in November. As for who will win, well, predicting elections is always a difficult business, but thanks to a few new polls we have some insight. According to the latest polls, Clinton is favored to defeat Donald Trump.
The first poll comes from Reuters, which surveyed 1,716 people. Of those surveyed, 63 percent believe that America is on the wrong track. Twenty percent believe that the economy in general is the biggest problem facing America. The next highest voted issue was terrorism at 12 percent followed by healthcare at 11 percent and then unemployment at 10 percent.
In what could be bad news for Trump, immigration, one of the cornerstones of his campaign, sits at a mere 7 percent meaning that, outside the Republican primaries, immigration might not be a major issue in this campaign. This could be a major problem for Trump heading into the general election when you consider that only those who are very concerned about illegal immigration are likely to support his policies, such as building a wall.
In terms of the election, Clinton leads Trump 42 percent to 34 percent. In terms of favorability, though, both candidates are still facing issues with high unfavorable ratings. Trump has an unfavorable rating of 60% whereas Clinton is currently sitting at 52%. It is important to keep in mind that this is a fairly large increase for Clinton compared to last week’s numbers.
The second poll comes from Rasmussen, which has Clinton leading Trump 42 percent to 38 percent. This is a near reverse from last month’s poll which had Trump leading 42 percent to 36 percent. Clinton’s support among Democrats has increased by 6 percent, signaling that some of Sanders’ supporters might have gone over to Clinton’s side now that the primaries are over.
In terms of demographics, Clinton still leads with women voters by 14 points, but men favor Trump by 8 points. Minority voters, which were an important part of Clinton’s primary campaign, continue to favor her, though she has less support among young voters of all types. This is likely due to the fact that many younger voters threw their support behind her challenger.
In a bit of somewhat good news for Trump, surveys show that most voters consider the Trump University scandal to be a non-issue in terms of affecting their vote during the presidential campaign.
The final poll is from Fox News, which, despite their right-wing leaning, has Clinton leading Trump 42 to 39, though that is within the poll’s margin of error. It’s interesting to note that this poll does not indicate an increase in support for Clinton, but rather a decrease in support for Trump. In May, Trump was leading Clinton by 3 points, 45 to 42, signalling that some of the recent controversies surrounding Trump’s campaign could be taking their toll.
In the end, polls such as these only give us a snapshot of the electorate and should always be taken with a grain of salt, but they are certainly good news for the Democratic Party.