A new poll, released on Wednesday, shows that Hillary Clinton is currently leading Donald Trump in the important swing state of Colorado. The Monmouth University poll shows Clinton beating Trump 48 percent to 35 percent.
In terms of demographics, Clinton leads Trump in nearly every category. She enjoys a commanding lead among women, earning 56 percent of their vote to Trump’s 30 percent. Trump is leading with men, but only by 1 point. He has 40 percent of the vote while Clinton is at 39 percent.
Clinton also enjoys strong support among younger voters, leading with 51 percent support among those under 50. Trump currently only has 26 percent of support from that demographic. Older voters, though, are much more divided. 45 percent support Clinton, whereas 42 percent support Trump.
When we divide voters along racial lines, we see that Clinton still maintains her lead. White voters prefer Clinton 44 percent to 38 percent, and the gap widens further when we look at the candidates’ support among minorities. Among black, Asian, and Hispanic voters, Clinton leads Trump 66 percent to 15 percent.
In terms of popularity, neither candidate is well-liked. 50 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of Clinton, whereas 60 percent of voters hold an unfavorable view of Trump. At least part of Clinton’s problem stems from the issues surrounding her email server. More than 70 percent of voters disapproved of the way she handled it.
‘Four-in-ten Colorado voters (40%) believe that the Democratic nominee acted criminally, another 33% say she showed poor judgment and just 11% say she did nothing out of the ordinary, with 16% offering no opinion.’
Interestingly enough, despite Trump’s outsider status, many voters view Clinton as more likely to look out for the average person. 44 percent of voters say Clinton is more likely to look out for “the little guy,” whereas 25 percent of voters say Trump is more likely to.
These numbers are a good sign for Clinton, as Colorado has traditionally voted Republican, with the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992 and Barrack Obama in 2008 and 2012. These numbers indicate that she might be able continue Obama’s trend of a Democrat victory. In fact, Patrick Murray, who leads the Monmouth University Polling institute, says these numbers indicate Clinton could win the state by a large margin, though it is early in the race.
‘Clinton does better among practically every demographic in Colorado than she does nationally. It is way too early to call, but if this dynamic holds, she could end up with the largest electoral margin for a Democrat here since 1964.’
Monmouth isn’t the only recently-released poll that shows Clinton leading in Colorado. A Fox News poll shows that Clinton is leading her rival by 10 points, which is outside the poll’s margin of error. In a head-to-head race, Clinton leads Trump 44 percent to 34 percent.
One of the men who helped conduct the poll, Republican pollster Daron Shaw, points out that Clinton is beating Trump both in the entire race and on the individual issues.
‘It’s not just that he’s down in the trial ballot. She also beats him across all relevant issue and trait evaluations. He needs to significantly improve his image and substantive impressions of where he wants to lead the country.’
A lack of substance has been one of the biggest weaknesses of Trump’s campaign. His slogans and simple solutions make for great tweets and TV soundbites, but they don’t hold up to the kind of analysis that generally accompanies a presidential election. It’s important to remember that it’s still early in the race, so things could always turn around, but right now the numbers look good for Democrats.