Despite a recent surge in poll numbers for Donald Trump after the Republican National Convention, projections from Benchmark Politics show that, even if Trump’s numbers remained steady between now and November — which is unlikely — Hillary Clinton would still have enough electoral college votes to win the presidency.
Polls have varied widely in the week after the RNC. CNN’s survey showed Trump with a large lead of five points. CBS had the two candidates at a virtual tie. Polls from YouGov and the University of Delaware, released the same day as the previously-mentioned polls, showed Clinton with a four to five-point lead.
Confused? Greg Sargent of the Washington Post explained it this way:
So, re the new polling, let’s try to keep two ideas in our heads at the same time: pic.twitter.com/6S1D5kqnAo
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) July 25, 2016
Still, that five-point lead that Trump gained in CNN’s poll had many people nervous and Trump supporters cheering. However, a new interactive map from Benchmark Politics shows that Clinton still has a massive lead in projected electoral college votes.
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
The interactive map uses 25% polls and 75% demographics. If this model is correct, Hillary Clinton already has 38 more electoral college votes than she needs to win. Donald Trump lacks 40 votes. Politics Now analyzed the data and explained that:
‘According to the model, the soon-to-be Democratic nominee is favored to win the swing states of Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire – amassing a total of 308 electoral votes to Trump’s 230.’
Very few polls support the numbers projected by CNN. The Huffington Post has Clinton leading by half a percentage point. RealClearPolitics shows Trump ahead by less than a point. In short, don’t put too much stock in the polls during the month of the convention. MSNBC writes:
‘As is true every four years, the polling around the time of the conventions tends to show some peaks and valleys, which don’t necessarily tell us much about what to expect in the fall. This volatility will continue for a while.’
‘Of course, post-convention bounces don’t always fade. Though the broader circumstances had an effect, Bill Clinton’s post-convention bump didn’t fade and he won the 1992 race. Ronald Reagan saw a huge surge after the 1980 convention and he didn’t look back. Maybe Trump is suddenly on his way to the Oval Office; maybe this is a temporary advantage. The point is, we don’t yet know.’
For CNN’s segment on the electoral college and how it works, see the video below:
Featured image screengrab via Benchmark Politics