For the first time in a month, Hillary Clinton has finally pulled ahead of Donald Trump in the most recent Rasmussen Reports poll.
This poll, conducted from July 26-27, right in the middle of the Democratic National Convention, shows Clinton with 43 percent support. Trump is just slightly behind her with 42 percent of the vote. Ten percent of those polled preferred another candidate, and four percent were undecided.
The results from this poll flip last week’s results, which showed that Trump was ahead of Clinton by 1 percentage point, 43 to 42 percent.
The race for the White House has been incredibly close between Clinton and Trump. Since October, Rasmussen points out, the two now-official nominees have been neck and neck. The image below shows just how close they have been:
After the Republican National Convention, when Trump accepted the nomination from the Republican Party, he also noticed a significant improvement in the polls. Rasmussen points out that, since the survey was taken Tuesday and Wednesday nights, “we won’t know until next week whether Clinton generates any bounce from her acceptance of the Democratic nomination.”
Rasmussen also pointed out that any “bounce” Trump received from his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention has been “blunted by the opening days of the Democratic convention.”
Although Clinton has managed to pull ahead in the general vote, closer examination of the poll’s results indicate that Trump has more support from voters in his own party. Eighty-six percent of Republicans polled are backing Trump, while only 79 percent of Democrats are backing Clinton. Clinton did see gains this week with non-affiliated voters, however. She now holds a five-point lead among voters in this demographic.
The poll also revealed some surprising information about voters who have switched their candidate of choice. Twenty-eight percent of those polled said that they have changed their minds about which candidate will be receiving their vote.
A significantly higher number of Republicans have changed their minds compared to Democrats. Thirty-six percent of GOP voters have switched support from one candidate to another, while 23 percent of Democrats and 27 percent of non-affiliated voters have switched from their initial choice to someone else.
When it comes to differences in gender among voters, Clinton is still ahead when it comes to the female vote, while Trump does better among men. Trump is ahead by four percentage points among male voters, while Clinton is ahead by five percentage points among women.
Clinton is also doing getter with the under 40 crowd, and Trump is still seeing more support among the older demographics.
One of the most shocking results of this poll is the fact that Trump is somehow leading among all minority voters besides African Americans. Clinton still has the African American vote by a significant majority; however, Trump is leading among whites and all other minority voters.
Clinton also still has some work to do within her own party. Rasmussen reports that “Less that half of Democrats feel Clinton has done enough to win over supporters of her primary rival Senator Bernie Sanders.” However, the good news for Clinton is that “most voters in their party still think there’s a good chance Sanders supporters will back the nominee in the fall.”
Rasmussen Reports surveyed 1,000 likely voters between July 26 and July 27. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.