Donald Trump’s signature hotels and casinos have taken a monstrous bashing in the stock market, Foursquare analysis shows. The collapse started when Trump kicked off his presidential campaign. The Taj Mahal announced that it will close after Labor Day.
Foursquare analyzes world trends to track how commercial fortunes rise or fall. As a businessman, Trump has brought politics and business together. Trump is running on his reputation as a successful businessman. That is one reason people want to see his tax returns.
Trump has a wide array of properties: golf courses, hotels, and casinos. He also sells his name, the Trump brand.
Foursquare tracks 50 million users worldwide each month and has a proven track record. The company’s interest in the Republican presidential candidate lies in the “power of information” to highlight “cultural trends.”
Trump began his campaign a year ago, and since 2015, foot traffic to his properties is down. By August 2015, his traffic was down 17 percent compared to August 2014. Between June of 2015 and now, traffic is down 14 percent.
Before he announced his candidacy, traffic was on the rise, particularly with a summertime gain. There was no typical springtime bounce, and March 2016 was down 17 percent again.
Compared to last year, traffic at the Trump SoHo, Trump International Hotel & Tower Chicago and Trump Taj Mahal is down 17 to 24 percent. A continuing employee strike contributed to the closing of the Taj Mahal.
Foursquare tracked “blue state” and “red state” locations. His properties are primarily located in blue states and the companies market to regional guests and visitors.
Trump’s blue properties in New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and Hawaii started showing a decrease in foot traffic. That decreased widened through July 2015. When compared to July 2015, foot traffic dropped 20 percent.
When analyzed by the gender demographic, women’s traffic decreased by double digits beginning in March 2016. For July 2016, women visitors in Blue state properties dropped 20 percent and correlated to the drop in Trump women voters.
In purple states, analysts found a much smaller share loss. Trump properties in Las Vegas and Miami showed a bounce from June to July. The numbers went from a negative 20 percent in June to a negative 3 percent in July, after the Republican convention.
Trump may not suffer much from the economic losses in Trump-branded properties. These properties have different owners. They just licensed the Trump brand.
Foursquare uses location-based apps to track 50 million monthly world users, national trends, and other shifts. The analysts considered check-in rates and visits per location.
The analysts can track mobile phones entering or exiting over 100 million businesses and locations by utilizing the GPS feature. The methodology measured visits to Trump properties compared to competitive properties in the same area.
They measure seasonal dips, age, gender bias. Foursquare considers that foot traffic does not always have a direct correlation to revenue. Unfortunately:
‘These Trump properties do not publish their historical financials to establish correlations over time.’
Trump International Hotel is scheduled to open in Washington, D.C. in September 2016, just prior to the November presidential election:
‘The impact of Trump’s campaign on its opening success is yet to be seen.’
As the value of the Trump brand declines, what kinds of changes will his licensees institute?