Nate Silver & The 538 Election Prediction Model Issue Historic New Statement (STATS)


Nate Silver and the statisticians at the popular data journalism website Five Thirty Eight continue to update their predictions chart for the general election. According to the analysts, Hillary Clinton currently holds a higher than ever chance of crushing Donald Trump.

Normally, each major political party’s respective national convention gives the party’s nominee a bounce in poll numbers. Sometimes this bounce is temporary, and sometimes it isn’t.

This year, the traditional post-convention poll number bounce didn’t happen. Rather, Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers skyrocketed to the highest ever, while Donald Trump’s chances at a November win plummeted.

Of course, such isn’t unreasonable. The 2016 Republican National Convention quickly became an epicenter of sickening hate for everyone from the poor to immigrants. Speakers rattled off blatant lies to a violently cheering crowd.

At the same time, the Democratic National Convention (DNC) was an exercise in civility — and, at the same time, DNC speakers made sure to point out the difference in their plea for anti-establishment voters to stick with the Democratic Party.

Many of these voters, having supported US Senator Bernie Sanders in the Democratic presidential primary, have refused to back Clinton, and are supporting the Green Party’s presidential nominee, Dr. Jill Stein.

However, enough voters are backing Clinton to assure that she continues to grow her chance at winning the election. Her backing coalition relies on the same voters who gave her the Democratic presidential nomination — African Americans, and, to a lesser extent, Latino voters.

Clinton is quickly approaching a near 100 percent chance at a victory, and her margin of lead certainly seems insurmountable.

The image below features the United States color coded according to the likelihood of a Clinton victory versus a Trump victory in each state. The darker the blue, the stronger Clinton’s presence in the state, and the darker the red, the stronger Trump’s presence.

latest-election-projections Nate Silver & The 538 Election Prediction Model Issue Historic New Statement (STATS) Election 2016 Top Stories

Combining the state-by-state data leaves the two candidates with the numbers reported at the top. Clinton comes in with an 89.2 percent chance of taking the presidency, while Trump’s chance is only 10.8 percent.

This gap is the largest yet reported by the Five Thirty Eight models. Hillary Clinton is expected to take in 369 electoral votes, while Trump is only set at a meager 168. In order to win, a candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes.

The margin over time is depicted in the image below.

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No third party candidate, for the record, comes in with any significant chance of winning the presidency.

Libertarian Gary Johnson does manage to pull approximately 9 percent of the popular vote, but that translates into zero electoral votes. His supporters are spread far too thinly to be the majority required to take an electoral vote in any one area.

On top of all of this data, Nate Silver reported last Friday that there is a small but significant chance of Clinton pulling off a landslide victory, that being defined as Clinton winning by double digits.

However, no matter the margin, the election is, at this point, basically decided. Candidates don’t come from 10 percent chances of winning to an actual victory. Bernie Sanders never did during the primary season, and Donald Trump isn’t about to do so now.

Featured Image is via Gage Skidmore on Wikimedia Commons, Available Under a Creative Commons License.