The University of Virginia has made an announcement that surely will not sit well with Donald Trump or his supporters. Larry Sabato’s website, “Crystal Ball,” which is part of the University of Virginia Center For Politics, has been predicting Hillary Clinton’s victory for awhile now. However, they’ve recently reached a new milestone.
The site has officially declared 270 electoral votes as “safe” or “likely Democratic.” So what exactly does that mean for Trump and his campaign? Well, in order to win, Trump needs to do well enough to secure all of the states classified as “lean” and at least one that is “safe” or “likely Democratic.”
‘We are putting Clinton over the 270-mark in the Electoral College (273 electoral votes, to be precise) with states we have classified as Likely Democratic or Safe Democratic. Clinton had previously been at 269 in those categories. To us, this means that Trump has to find a way not just to sweep all Republican states and the remaining states classified Leans Democratic (see our map, below) but to dislodge at least one Likely or Safe Democratic state. Anything can happen over the next dozen weeks, but we wouldn’t recommend betting your children’s college funds on a Trump administration.’
Interestingly enough, it was New Hampshire, a state that some predicted Trump would do well in, that put Clinton over the top. Trump’s base of support is with white voters, and New Hampshire is one of the whitest states in the country. Due to these favorable demographics, the Crystal Ball waited to call New Hampshire for Clinton. However, they now say they’ve gathered enough data to feel safe in making this prediction.
The main reason for Trump’s lack of support in the Granite State is its education level. Trump primarily receives support specifically from white voters without a college education. Those with college degrees tend to favor Clinton. Unfortunately for the GOP, about half of the electorate in New Hampshire is made up of college-educated white voters.
Sabato hasn’t completely ruled Trump out, though. The Crystal Ball did lay out one possible path to a Trump administration. They started off by giving Trump all of the states that Mitt Romney won in 2012. Additionally, it’s possible that he could take Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Iowa, although he would still be 11 votes short of 270.
Sabato admitted that the GOP nominee’s best bet might be to take Nevada and New Hampshire so he could force a tie with Clinton. Of course, the Crystal Ball just ruled out New Hampshire, but as they themselves said, “Daydreams and nightmares don’t last long in the August hothouse of 2016.”
In light of other recent polls, this map does not bode well for the Republican Party. Is Clinton’s victory a sure thing? No, but it looks like she’s the safest bet.
Featured image via Getty Images.