Donald Trump is beating up Hillary Clinton in Florida by a slim margin, according to a newly released Florida poll. This important swing state can make or break the election for either candidate. Trump’s lead could mark a significant turning point, after Clinton has steadily held the state.
The Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Poll Initiative (FAUBEPI) showed Trump edging out Clinton 43 percentage points to 41. These statistics show up when Libertarian Gary Johnson enters into the mix. He took 8 percent of the vote, while 5 percent of the voters were still undecided.
Both candidates still had poor favorability ratings. Trump was 41 percent favorable. Clinton was 40 percent favorable. When it comes to unfavorability, Trump scored 56 percent and Clinton 58 percent.
In a different slice of the demographics, Clinton had a 90 percent loyalty score. That included those voters who had a favorable opinion of her and were voting for her. Trump scored an even higher loyalty rating of 94 percent.
Among males, Trump led 46 percentage points to Clinton’s 36 percent. Conversely, Clinton led among women, 45 percent to Trump’s 41 percent.
Trump took the Independent vote by a noteworthy margin of 47 percent to Clinton’s 26 percent. The GOP candidate also led among white voters with 49 percent to her 33 percent. Clinton, on the other hand, took 68 percent of the African-American vote, while Trump only scored 20 percent.
Among Hispanics, Clinton also scored higher, 50 percent to his 40 percent. Director of the BEPI Monica Escaleras, Ph.D. said:
‘The race between Clinton and Trump among Hispanics in Florida is closer than it is nationally. Some of that is probably the Cuban vote. Trump’s support among Latinos in Florida is helping him stay competitive.’
Trump scored best in the western part of Florida, leading Clinton 52 percent to 34 percent. He also did well in the north, leading Clinton 47 percent to 32 percent. Once again, Trump led in central Florida, 44 percent to Clinton’s 36 percent. South Florida was Clinton territory, where she led 57 percent to 30 percent.
The most important issue for Florida voters was dissatisfaction with government, 29 percent. Jobs came in second with 18 percent. Immigration ranked third with 13 percent, followed by ISIS with 12 percent.
When asked which top quality they wanted in a candidate, 27 percent of the voters wanted experience. Commander-in-Chief came in second with 16 percent. Trustworthiness followed at 15 percent.
Associate professor of political science at FAU and research fellow of the Initiative, Kevin Wagner, Ph.D. said that despite the national trend, the presidential race in Florida remains close and is within the survey’s margin of error:
‘The fact that both Mr. Trump and Secretary Clinton are significantly upside down in their favorability ratings could make it difficult for either to move substantially ahead.’
‘Clinton likely got a boost from the fact that Floridians chose experience as the top quality they are looking for in their presidential candidate. But, Floridians also chose dissatisfaction with government as their top issue, which likely favors Mr. Trump.’
This poll was conducted from August 19th through 22nd. The random sample of registered voters contained 364 registered Democratic voters. The margin of error for this group was +/- 5.1 percent. The Republican group consisted of 327 registered Republican voters. The margin of error here was +/- 5.4 percent. The General election polls consisted of 1200 registered likely voters. That margin of error was +/- 2.7 percent.
These generous margins of error are significant, because the Trump lead of 2 percentage points falls well within the parameters, meaning either candidate could win at this point.