According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump nationally by five percentage points.
This poll, which was conducted between Aug. 22 and Aug. 25, revealed that 41 percent of likely voters support Clinton, while 36 percent support Trump. Twenty-three percent of voters would not choose between either Clinton or Trump and answered “refused,” “other,” or “wouldn’t vote.”
In a four-way matchup, Clinton still leads, although by a smaller margin. Thirty-nine percent of likely voters supported Clinton in the four-way poll, while 36 percent preferred Trump. Seven percent supported Libertarian nominee, Gary Johnson, and 3 percent chose Green Party nominee, Jill Stein.
It is good news for Clinton to be ahead of Trump; however, she is actually down seven points from the 12 points she led by earlier this month.
The drop in Clinton’s poll numbers could have something to do with the accusation from Trump that her actions as secretary of state were influenced by donations to the Clinton Foundation. There have also been even more questions in the past couple of weeks about her use of a private email server during her time as secretary of state.
Trump, on the other hand, may have won some more points because of his suggestion earlier this week that he would soften his position on immigration. Trump also brought in a new campaign manager this week, Kellyanne Conway, and may be enjoying slightly better poll numbers because of her efforts to make him seem more “presidential.”
The results from this Reuters/Ipsos poll are similar to the Real Clear Politics poll average, which has Clinton leading Trump by six points.
Although Clinton’s lead has shrunk, she is still ahead by a significant margin in almost every important battleground state. She has a 71.8 percent chance of winning Florida, a 71.3 percent chance of winning Ohio, and an 86.8 percent chance of winning Virginia.
She is also still the favorite to win the presidency in November. Reuters referenced The States of the Nation, which estimated on Wednesday that, if the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would have a 95 percent chance of winning by about 108 electoral votes.
This prediction from The States of the Nation is more optimistic than the prediction from FiveThirtyEight. Both predict a Clinton victory, but Five Thirty Eight has her with an 80.4 percent chance of winning.
Either way, Clinton is certainly still the favorite to win the race. Donald Trump has a lot of work to do if he wants to even have a chance at the presidency.
Both polls from Reuters/Ipsos (the two-way matchup and the four-way matchup) were conducted online in English in all 50 states. They surveyed 1,154 likely voters and have a credibility interval of three percentage points.
Featured image via Getty Images.