You’d think that after Hillary Clinton smacked Donald Trump down as a flaming bigot with ties to White supremacists, we’d be sticking a fork in him and calling him done.
First came Hillary Clinton’s damning video ad starring Ku Klux Klan members explaining why they support Donald Trump. Then came her crushing speech on Thursday, where she accused Mein Trumpf of taking hate groups “mainstream.”
Oh, and then Donald Trump’s campaign CEO Stephen Bannon got busted for felony voter fraud and was exposed as an (alleged!) spousal abuser. Not to mention Donald Trump’s Russian mafia ties, shady speaking fees, long history of housing discrimination, and getting dumped by the likes of Sarah Palin.
You’d think Hillary Clinton would have this election locked up. But wait, maybe not…
Alarming new Poll shows Hillary Clinton ahead by only THREE points.
On Saturday, Morning Consult delivered the bad news. Their new poll shows Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by a measly three percentage points.
‘In a survey taken Aug. 24 through Aug. 26, Trump halved the 6-point distance between himself and Clinton from the previous week’s poll. In the most recent head-to-head matchup, 43 percent of registered voters say they will vote for Clinton, and 40 percent say they will vote for Trump; 17 percent don’t know or have no opinion.’
The folks at Morning Consult add that the numbers “haven’t been this close since late July.” Ouch. The only consolation is that Hillary Clinton fares better in a four-way matchup with the Libertarian and Green Party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein thrown in.
— HotAir.com (@hotairblog) August 28, 2016
And no, this isn’t some right-wing outfit trying to gin up some desperately needed good news for the Trump–Pence campaign. They’re the official polling partner of Vox.Com, Fortune Magazine, Bloomberg News and other news outlets.
But how can this be? Last week’s poll numbers looked so good for the Democratic nominee.
- Reuters/Ipsos: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump nationally by five percentage points.
- Quinnipiac University: Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 10 points.
- Recent state polls also Hillary Clinton ahead in unlikely states like Florida, North Carolina, and New Mexico.
Nate Silver, the data guru from 538 posted a graph showing that random sampling reveals some surprising amounts of “noise” (random variation) over a five-day period. In other words, Hillary Clinton’s leads can get narrower when you account for margins of error.
People underestimate how noisy polling is. Here's what random variation looks like in a 1000-person "tracking poll". pic.twitter.com/rrelQcYCMo
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 27, 2016
Also, another poll by PRRI shows Donald Trump does best with older white people, who tend to have higher turnouts for elections (which may have something to do with the GOP’s voter ID laws). Many people who fall in with pro-Hillary Clinton demographics are less likely to be registered to vote.
Clinton up 13 in @PRRIpoll nat'l poll of RVs:
August 10-16, MOE +/-2.9% pic.twitter.com/nS4XvmgctS
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) August 27, 2016
Morning Consult mentions that Donald Trump’s outreach efforts have failed to convince African-American and Hispanic voters. However, they may make some white voters feel better about casting their ballot for the GOP nominee.
Also, there’s the fact that both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are widely disliked even within their own parties. The tide has been turning against the political establishment in both the Democratic and Republican parties over the past decade. That explains a lot about how Donald Trump became the GOP nominee, while Hillary Clinton lost the nomination in 2008 to a young, unknown, Black, first-term senator and came close to losing in 2016 to an adorably rumpled 74-year-old Democratic Socialist and U.S. Senate backbencher from Vermont.
Morning Consult conducted the poll with a nation-wide sample of 2,007 registered voters with a 2-point (plus or minus) margin of error.