New polls released Monday show that the presidential candidates are now tied neck and neck in Ohio, and that the race for the White House is closing the gap in key battleground states Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In both of the latter, Democrat Hillary Clinton still holds the lead, but Republican nominee Donald Trump may be catching up.
Emerson College Polls released three new polls on Monday showing that Clinton and Trump both have 43 percent of eligible voter support in Ohio. Gary Johnson, the candidate from the Libertarian Party, received 10 percent of the support from surveyed voters, while Jill Stein, Green Party candidate, received 2 percent.
In Michigan, Clinton leads by five points, with 45 percent to Trump’s 40 percent. Johnson received 7 percent of the support from those surveyed, and Stein received 3 percent.
In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads by three points, with 46 percent of the vote to Trump’s 43 percent. Johnson was the stated preferred candidate by 7 percent, while Stein, again, received only 2 percent.
According to the poll, Trump’s chances for a win are improving in all three swing states. Among independents in Ohio, Trump enjoys a 17-point lead over the former secretary of state. Trump’s lead with independents in Michigan and Pennsylvania is somewhat narrower.
The poll results call the gender gap between the two candidates “significant.”
Clinton leads well ahead of Trump with female voters in all three battleground states. Clinton enjoys a whopping 26-point lead over the real estate mogul in Michigan (56 percent to 30 percent). In Pennsylvania, she leads with female voters by 15 points (53 percent to 38 percent). In Ohio, her lead with women is 13 points (51 percent to 38 percent).
In all three of these important Rust Belt states, men favor Trump with 49 percent of male voters leaning toward the GOP candidate.
The age gap also appears to be significant in Ohio and Pennsylvania, with younger voters favoring Clinton. In Ohio, 50 percent to 32 percent of voters 18–34 prefer Clinton, and in Pennsylvania, they prefer Clinton 42 percent to 39 percent. However, in Michigan, where Bernie Sanders led a youth-driven upset over Clinton in the primary race, Trump leads Clinton 45 percent to 33 percent among voters 18–34.
Both candidates face problems with approval among voters in these states. Trump’s unfavorable rating in Ohio is 57 percent, with Clinton not far behind at 56 percent unfavorable.
In Michigan, the numbers are also very similar, with Trump receiving a 55-percent unfavorable rating, and Clinton receiving a 52-percent unfavorable rating.
Trump’s unfavorable ratings are highest in Pennsylvania, at 58 percent, with Clinton’s at 55 percent.
Clinton’s unfavorable rating in all three of these states is nearly as high as Trump’s with no more than three points separating the two.
While both candidates have found a loyal base of voters, regardless of who they are planning to vote for, most of the polled voters believe that Hillary Clinton will win the general election. In Ohio, 54 percent of the poll respondents said they think that Clinton will win. In Pennsylvania, 56 percent believe Clinton will win, and in Michigan, 50 percent think she will win the presidency.
The Emerson College Poll was conducted from Aug. 25-29, and consisted of 800 likely general election voters via landlines.