A brand new Reuters/ Ipsos national poll of the presidential race has just been released, and the results are shaking the presidential race to the core — but in the end, Hillary Clinton is still ahead.
In this new poll, released Friday, Clinton and her Republican challenger, Donald Trump are effectively tied, with Trump “ahead ” by 1 percent.
Trump scored 40 percent of the support among those surveyed, while Clinton came in with 39 percent support. The “credibility interval” for the poll — that number which represents the largest presumed possible margin by which the reported numbers may be off from the actual numbers — is 3 percent.
Thus, the poll results leave it up in the air as to which candidate is actually ahead among those surveyed.
The poll in question is a weekly event, with 1,804 respondents from all 50 states.
These numbers, however, are where Trump’s seeming good fortune stops. Him claiming some kind of lead over Clinton in one isolated Reuters poll does not mean that he is going to win the presidency.
To start with, there are many, many polls conducted on a daily basis, and Trump suddenly showing up in one tied with Clinton does not negate the poll after poll in which the Republican presidential nominee is definitively and solidly behind.
The Real Clear Politics national polling average has Clinton up by just under 4 percent as of early Saturday afternoon.
The graph illustrating the RCP national average over time is featured below.
Secondly, besides the many polls showing Trump behind, there’s the fact that polls don’t elect the president of the United States.
To put that more directly, as the Reuters press release regarding the poll itself notes, the United States employs the electoral college system, giving different weight to different areas of the United States in terms of that area’s role in determining the next president of the United States.
And of the electoral college Reuters says this:
‘As of last Friday, the separate Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation polling project estimated Clinton was on track to win the Electoral College, by about 332 votes to 206.’
So, although these newest numbers from Reuters might make the Trump camp feel better for a minute, The Donald still remains the long shot candidate.
Featured Image via Tomohiro Ohsumi / Stringer/ Getty Images.