The race for the presidency, thought of for some time as heralding Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s sure victory come November, is no longer looking so rosy for Democrats.
The latest installment of the NBC News/ Survey Monkey weekly tracker poll has Clinton up by only a certain 3 percent after factoring in the poll’s margin of error, which is approximately 1 percent.
The reported numbers have Clinton coming in with 48 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 44 percent. These numbers come before factoring in, as noted, the margin of error, which represents the size of the potential difference between the reported numbers and the actual numbers.
The above numbers are pretty much the best on the horizon for the Clinton campaign, thus underlining the bleak situation in which the left finds itself as Election Day draws ever closer.
Even within the same poll there is a dark side to the numbers, since when support for the two leading third party candidates is polled, Clinton’s lead after considering the margin of error falls to only one percent.
Seeing as both the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Dr. Jill Stein are looking to be on the ballot in most states, and both candidates continue to garner support in a size substantial enough to significantly subtract from the polling numbers of the two major party candidates, the latter scenario outlined in the poll is likely the closest to how Election Day were to play out were it today.
Counting on a one percent polling lead for a win is far from a smart political move.
The Clinton campaign machine continues to come under intense scrutiny for seemingly taking for granted that this election is “not like other elections” and that to actually win the presidency Clinton must hang on to at least a portion of the popular appeal that makes Trump attractive to some anti-establishment voters.
The days that Hillary Clinton spent hiding her pneumonia diagnosis take away from the Clinton campaign’s attempt to win over the Bernie Sanders-style, populist, issue-focused voters who are far from eager to back Clinton. Even if these voters don’t back Trump, they are likely to stay home in November if Clinton keeps transgressing against their populist code.
The Clinton vs. Trump national polling average from Real Clear Politics has the Democratic nominee currently up by a meager 2.4 percent — a number which is within the margin of error for most of the polls making up the average.
See the relevant RCP graph below.
When Johnson and Stein are introduced into the same graph, Hillary Clinton’s lead falls slightly to only 2 percent, which is equal to or less than the margin of error for all but one of the polls making up the average.
Featured Image via Boston Globe/ Getty Images.