Prominent elections analyst Nate Silver called the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump for the presidency “highly competitive” in a Wednesday morning tweet announcing the latest update to Five Thirty Eight’s electoral college model.
Five Thirty Eight, Silver’s ESPN owned statistical forecasting website, has long been on the leading edge of analyzing trends in the election, keeping track of the relevant numbers since the major parties’ respective primary seasons.
And now, with less than two months to go until Election Day, Five Thirty Eight says the race is “highly competitive.”
Five Thirty Eight’s national map is featured below embedded in Silver’s tweet. States are color coded with their respective chance of falling for one of the two major party candidates, with blue for Clinton, red for Trump, and gray for toss-up.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 14, 2016
Among the tossup states, Five Thirty Eight rates Florida with a 17.3 percent chance of “tipping the election”- and at present, the projected margin of victory for Clinton in the state is 0.1 percent.
0.1 percent. One-tenth of one percent. For the first time since immediately following the conventions, the Real Clear Politics polling average has Trump ahead of Clinton, with him leading by the same margin that Five Thirty Eight expects Clinton to win by come November.
Combining each state’s chance of falling for either Trump or Clinton gives the Democratic nominee an about 50 electoral vote lead over Trump in the final tally, with 295.2 electoral votes to Trump’s projected final tally of 242.6.
These numbers, however, assume that Clinton wins Florida by the same margin by which Trump is now leading in state polls. Clinton’s lead is more than halved if Trump wins Florida’s 29 electoral votes.
With these numbers, Clinton’s bump in the polls following the Democratic National Convention has effectively vanished. The last time Trump had as high of a chance as he does at present of winning the presidency according to the Five Thirty Eight model was July 30.
Clinton is struggling under the accusation that she is not transparent enough to serve as president of the United States, an accusation stemming both out of her supposed improper handling of classified information while serving as Secretary of State and, most recently, out of the revelation that she hid a pneumonia diagnosis from the public for days before collapsing at a 9/11 memorial.
Clinton has long been cleared of any wrongdoing relating to her tenure as Secretary of State, and to suggest that hiding a diagnosis of pneumonia somehow disqualifies her for the White House is simply outlandish, considering the long historical precedent of leaders serving with illness.
Donald Trump is the presidential candidate sitting on actual legal trouble, with pending investigations in New York that, according to State Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, could see Trump appear in court as president- elect or as president.
The question now stands, however, whether voters will consider such when making their decision, and thus clear the way for Hillary Clinton to win the presidency.
Featured Image via Tomohiro Ohsumi/ Getty Images.