JUST IN: Highly Accurate Polling Model Released, Numbers Show BIG New Lead (STATS)


A new poll from Monmouth University shows that Hillary Clinton has a 9 point lead over Donald Trump in New Hampshire.

Forty-seven percent of New Hampshire voters support Hillary Clinton, while 38 percent are backing Donald Trump. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson receives 10 percent of the vote and Green Party nominee Jill Stein receives 1 percent. Three percent of voters are undecided.

The results of the poll reveal that Clinton not only does better among New Hampshire voters as a whole, but she also does better among members of her own party than Trump does among members of his. Clinton has support from 94 percent of New Hampshire Democrats, while Trump has support from 85 percent of Republicans. Clinton is also beating Trump when it comes to independent voters. Forty-two percent of independents back Clinton, while 35 percent support Trump.

Clinton leads Trump among voters of all ages. With voters under 50 years old, Clinton receives 45 percent of the vote to Trump’s 35 percent. She does similarly well with voters age 50 and older, winning 49 percent support to Trump’s 41 percent.

Clinton has also maintained her lead over Trump when it comes to women, with 56 percent of women preferring her and only 30 percent preferring Trump. Trump does lead Clinton among men, but by a smaller margin — 47 percent to 37 percent.

The college-educated also prefer Clinton over Trump, 54 percent to 31 percent. Trump has a lead among those without a college education, but, again, his lead is smaller, only 47 percent to 40 percent.

Despite Clinton’s lead in the Granite State, both she and Trump have low favorability ratings. Only 30 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of Trump, while 63 percent have an unfavorable view of him. Clinton fares just slightly better, with 36 percent of voters having a favorable view of her and 56 percent having an unfavorable view.

The poll addressed Donald Trump’s recent admission that Barack Obama was born in the United States, and, based on the results, it doesn’t seem that Trump was very convincing in his statement. Eighty-six percent of voters have heard about Trump’s admission, but only 29 percent think that Trump sincerely believes what he said. Fifty-one percent of voters also said that Trump only made the statement so that he could win votes.

New Hampshire voters, for the most part, also do not believe that the birther controversy started with Hillary Clinton, as Donald Trump claimed it did. Fifty-two percent of voters do not think Clinton had a role in the birther movement, and only 29 percent think she did.

The poll reveals that Donald Trump’s admission about President Obama did not influence the majority of voters’ decisions one way or the other. Eighty percent of voters are still planning to vote for the same candidate as they were before Trump’s statement. Only 15 percent of voters said they are less likely to vote for Trump after his statement, and a mere 3 percent said they were more likely to vote for him because of it.

While Clinton is doing very well in the state of New Hampshire, nationally, she is struggling to maintain her lead. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows her with a lead of only 1.1 percent.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone between September 17 and 20. Four hundred likely New Hampshire voters were polled, and the sample has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.

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