Rachel Maddow has some good news for Hillary Clinton. She announced that NBC News has partnered with the voter data group Target Smart to analyze data on the presidential election. Thanks to Target Smart, NBC has learned some interesting things about early voting in North Carolina.
North Carolina was the first swing state to start early voting, and 4,000 presidential ballots have already been cast in that state. Obviously, they aren’t allowed to open the ballots and look at them, but we do have some interesting data regarding party affiliation.
Of the 4,000 or so ballots that have been cast so far, 42 percent are from registered Democrats, 34 percent are from Republicans, and 25 percent were cast by independent voters.
This eight-point lead among Democratic voters bodes well for Clinton, but it’s important to keep things in perspective. First of all, this is a tiny sample, and Democrats, in general, do better in early voting than Republicans. Republicans, when they do win, tend to make up that difference on election day.
Those caveats aside, this lead is still good news for Democrats especially when you consider, that in 2012, Republicans were ahead in this stage of the race. Republicans held a 43 to 38 percent lead, and Mitt Romney did win North Carolina in 2012.
If Clinton can win North Carolina, then she has a very good chance of winning the election, assuming she wins in the projected blue states. However, it’s important to keep in mind that this is, as Maddow frequently stated, only a tiny picture of the upcoming election and some recent polls indicate that Trump is currently leading in that state.
Of course, it’s also important to note that many polls show Trump as having less support than Romney in various voting blocks. Even within his strongest group, white men, Trump’s lead isn’t insurmountable. Trump is doing very well with white whites voters without a college degree, but Clinton leads among those with a bachelor’s degree or higher. Trump is also having trouble with white women likely due some of the controversial comments he’s made on the campaign trail.
You can check out Maddow’s analysis for yourself below:
— Maddow Blog (@MaddowBlog) September 23, 2016
Featured image via screenshot from video.