A brand new poll out of New Mexico has Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton up by 10 percent over her Republican rival Donald Trump.
Hillary Clinton claims 44 percent of the state’s support when pitted against Donald Trump to survey respondents, with Trump coming in at only 34 percent of the vote.
Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc., spoke to the poll results in the Albuquerque Journal, saying:
‘The election is close in New Mexico. The bottom line is that New Mexico is more competitive than I expected.’
Sanderoff’s remarks underline that the seemingly whopping Democratic leading margin in the state is not enough to guarantee that Clinton will take the state’s electoral votes come November.
Clinton’s dramatic leading margin shows up only when support for just the two major party candidates is polled. When Libertarian Gary Johnson is included in the poll, Clinton’s lead over Trump drops to four percent.
The numbers from the polling which includes Johnson see Clinton with 35 percent of the vote, Trump with 31 percent, and Johnson with a startling 24 percent of the support of those polled.
Clinton’s leading margin in these numbers is less than the poll’s margin of error, which is 4.4 percent. The margin of error is that number that represents the possible size of the difference between the reported numbers and the actual numbers.
Thus, there is no way to guarantee, based off the poll results, that Clinton is actually in the lead in New Mexico. Considering Johnson in the survey produces what is likely the more realistic outcome, since he will be on the ballot in November.
For the record, Green Party presidential candidate Dr. Jill Stein was also included in the set of poll questions that included Johnson, but she only registered 2 percent support, a hardly significant amount since the poll’s margin of error is twice that number.
Johnson served in the past as Governor of New Mexico for two terms; thus he holds the clearly dramatic home state advantage among that large group of voters who are heavily disillusioned with the two major party candidates.
Sanderoff noted something else about Johnson’s support levels to the Albuquerque Journal, saying that, according to the demographic breakdown of those polled, “Johnson is picking up Hispanic support, and that is what is keeping Hillary Clinton down.”
The Republican presidential nominee, for his part, has suffered dramatic losses in poll and electoral college numbers, according to nearly every available metric since his pathetic showing at the first of three debates to be held before the general election.
A stunning majority of debate watchers named Clinton as the winner of the debate, while only around one in four said the same of Trump.
And, while Trump and Clinton were effectively tied before last Monday’s inaugural debate, Trump has since seen his chances at the presidency, as measured by FiveThirtyEight, drop to around one in four.
The Real Clear Politics national polling average has Clinton up over Trump by 2.5 percent as of Sunday afternoon.
Sunday’s poll out of New Mexico was conducted over the days of September 27 through September 29 and includes the responses of 501 likely New Mexico voters.
Featured Image via Spencer Platt/ Getty Images.