A new national poll conducted by Quinnipiac University has Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by five percentage points.
The new poll shows that Clinton is currently supported by 45 percent of voters whereas Trump is supported by 40 percent of voters. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earned six percent of the vote and the Green Party’s Jill Stein is currently at 3 percent. In a two-way race, Clinton’s lead becomes a bit stronger, with the Democratic nominee earning 50 percent of the voter compared to Trump’s 40 percent.
In terms of demographics, Clinton has a commanding lead among non-white voters. The former Secretary of State earned 73 percent of the non-white vote. Trump earned 21 percent. White voters remain the backbone of Trump’s movement with the GOP nominee leading Clinton 54 percent to 41 percent. However, Trump’s lead falls off when discussing college-educated white voters. They favor Clinton by 18 points, with the former First Lady earning 50 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 32 percent.
Regardless of race, Clinton still leads with female voters. Fifty-three percent of all female voters said they would be supporting Clinton, compared to the 33 percent that are supporting the GOP nominee. Trump does still lead among male voters, but they don’t break for him as heavily as woman did for the former First Lady. Forty-nine percent of male voters say the will vote for Trump, whereas 37 percent say they are voting for Clinton.
One interesting demographic to look at are independent voters. In a two-way race, 57 percent of independent voters said they would be voting for Clinton. Only 37 percent support Trump. The two third party candidates, Johnson and Stein, take from both camps, but appear to hurt Clinton a bit more. When third parties are factored in, the former Secretary of State earns 46 percent of the independent vote and Trump earns 32 percent.
Clinton’s lead among independent voters can likely be attributed to a strong showing at the first debate. Most of the polls showed that viewers thought she won the debate. Even Republicans criticized Trump’s performance. There is some question as to how much of a role the debates actually play, but, in an election as close as this one, the candidates need every advantage they can get.
The current candidates are some of the most unpopular major party nominees in history, but that doesn’t seem to have made an impact on voter enthusiasm. Among likely voters, 56 percent said that they were more motivated to vote in this election than in previous ones. That number is up a bit among the GOP with 61 percent of registered Republicans saying they are more motivated than usual to vote. Only 56 percent of Democrats said the same. This enthusiasm is likely due to the fact that, despite how little some voters might like they’re party’s nominee, they like the other party’s nominee much less.
This poll had a sample size of 1,064 likely voters and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. The survey was conducted between October 5th and the sixth via landline and cellphones.
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