JUST IN: Polls For Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio’s Re-Eletion Released, Results Are INCREDIBLE (STATS)


The controversial Sheriff Joe Arpaio, 84, sunk 10 points below Paul Penzone in a new poll. The contentious sheriff is running for his seventh term, and his challenger is leaving him in the dust. It is looking really bad for the self-proclaimed “toughest sheriff.”

Political consultant Gibson McKay with Sherpa Public Affairs conducted the new Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite Poll, which indicated that Arpaio was in his toughest race yet. McKay said:

‘I knew there was a lot of discussion among the chattering class that Arpaio was having trouble. I was surprised that the margin by which [it was] indicated as him losing.’

The poll interviewed 348 Maricopa County voters and asked them who they would vote for. Some of the poll’s results surprised McKay, such as how badly Arpaio was losing among independents. She said:

‘I think his base, which has always been traditionally been an older base, that 50 to 65 crowd, really is departing from him. The reason for that, I don’t know. Also, men who he has always done well with. Kind of that red meat, law and order kind of attitude. men are leaving him too.’

The poll had nothing to do with Arpaio facing criminal contempt charges, because the poll was conducted well before then, October 2nd through October 5th. Voters have been concerned about that issue. McKay reported:

‘I’ve been doing polls for 15 to 20 years in Arizona and around the country and they’re snapshots of an election. Can he make up space? Certainly. Can Mr. Penzone lose support? Certainly, but if it keeps going the way it’s going right now, we’re going to have a new sheriff in Maricopa County.’

The results of the poll among men showed Arpaio with 38 percent to his opponent’s 55 percent. Among women, he was slightly ahead at 47 percent to 42 percent. However, Arpaio did extremely badly among Independents with 38 percent to 53 percent.

In the group of people aged 50 to 64 years old, he lost again 45 percent to 51 percent. In the 65-years-old category he won 50 percent to 41 percent.

The Arpaio campaign manager, Chad Willems, said his campaign’s internal polls showed Arpaio was doing well. He said:

“We are feeling really good, the energy behind this campaign has picked up immensely.’

However, Sheriff Arpaio acknowledged a weakness in his campaign.

‘One of my problems I’ve had — I haven’t been able to rectify it — I would love to get to the Latino community and talk to them,” Arpaio said in an interview after his public remarks. “It is very difficult. Some of them think I am the devil and all that. I am a nice guy. If I can get to talk to them, hey, I will swing them my way.’

In a get-out-the vote operation, field organizer with the Bazta [That’s Enough!] Arpaio campaign Devin Del Palacio said the Latino community “certainly” is excited about the news of criminal contempt court charges against Arpaio:

‘We think that this is playing into our momentum. But regardless of what happens in the trial, we’re going to remain focused to ensure that his tenure ends on Nov. 8.’

There is a strong Latino movement to get out the vote across the country. Several groups, including Mi Familia Vota, iAmerica Action, and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), came together to knock on doors and hold phone banking events in dozens of cities.

The margin of error in this Arizona Repubic/Morrison/Cronkite Poll was 5.2+/- percent.

Featured Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, Creative Commons License, minor modification.