A new Monmouth University poll shows a close race in Arizona. The Grand Canyon State usually considered a safe Republican state. Barring Bill Clinton’s victory in 1996, Arizona has voted for the Republican nominee in every presidential election since 1952.
Donald Trump is currently leading Hillary Clinton, but his one point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error. Trump currently leads Clinton 46 percent to 45 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is currently sitting at 4 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein earned one percent of the vote.
Despite the GOP nominee’s lead, he shouldn’t celebrate just yet. The former Secretary of State has a 10 point lead among those who have already voted, which could mean trouble if any of Trump’s supporters stay home on election day.
In terms of demographics, the former First Lady has a commanding lead among minority voters. Latino voters, who make up 1/5 of the state’s population, reported that they preferred the Democratic nominee by a margin of 65 percent to 30 percent.
Trump’s support is strongest among white male voters who support the Apprentice star 64 percent to 26 percent. White women, on the other hand, are much more divided. Forty-seven percent of white women said they were going to vote for Trump whereas 44 percent said they would support the Democratic nominee.
Among whites with a Bachelor’s Degree or higher, Trump’s lead shrinks to a mere two points. Forty-five percent of college-educated voters support the Republican nominee compared to 43 percent who are supporting the Democratic nominee.
One interesting thing to note is that, as the general election draws closer, we are seeing less and less support for the third parties. This could be simply due to the fact that Stein and Johnson’s flaws are better known or that voters in competitive states don’t wish to “waste” their ballot on a protest vote.
One thing that has not changed is the popularity of these two candidates. They remain the most disliked major party nominees in decades. Only 32 percent of voters hold a favorable view of Clinton compared to the 57 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of her.
Trump fares a bit better, but not by much. Only 34 percent of voters hold a favorable opinion of the GOP nominee whereas 56 percent of voters view him unfavorably.
In terms of the senate race, John McCain seems to have insulated himself from Trump’s unpopularity. Forty-three percent of voters hold a favorable opinion of McCain compared to the 33 percent who view him unfavorably. A majority, 52 percent, approve of the job McCain is doing in the senate.
In terms of the actual race, McCain has a 10 point lead over his opponent Ann Kirkpatrick. The two are essentially tied when it comes to early ballot results, but McCain has a commanding lead among those who have not yet voted.
This poll ran from October 21st to October 24th and consisted of 401 likely Arizona voters. The survey was conducted with a live interview via cell phones and land lines and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.
Featured image via Getty Images.