Donald Trump will beat Hillary Clinton in the upcoming presidential election, according to an artificial intelligence (AI) system. This system accurately predicted the President Barack Obama and George W. Bush elections. So what does this mean?
The founder of MogIA, Sanjiv Rai set up his Indian start-up Genic.ai to predict the 2016 winner. The way it works is that it captures 20 million pieces of data from places like Google, YouTube, and Facebook and analyzes the information. That analysis results in his highly accurate predictions.
Rai explained that his AI system has looked at previous candidates with the most engagement data. The result was the winner of the previous three elections. He sent a report to CNBC which read:
‘If Trump loses, it will defy the data trend for the first time in the last 12 years since Internet engagement began in full earnest.’
The entrepreneur designed the predictor system in 2004 and has been refining it ever since then. In this election, Rai accurately predicted both the Democratic and Republican primaries.
The information the AI system has already collected shows that Trump has 25 percent more engagements than President Obama had at his most popular point in 2008. Rai spoke to CNBC in a telephone interview, saying:
‘If you look at the primaries, in the primaries, there were immense amount of negative conversations that happen with regards to Trump. However, when these conversations started picking up pace, in the final days, it meant a huge game opening for Trump and he won the Primaries with a good margin.’
But what about the national polls that show Clinton and down-ticket Democrats ahead by double digits in some cases? Rai said the problem is complacency.
Of course, he is willing admit that his system does have limitations. For example, people can comment on Trump tweets, but that doesn’t mean they will support him in the general election on Nov. 8.
Another consideration is that far more people are active on social media than in the 2012 election. Assistant professor of political science at Northeastern University Nick Beauchamp published a paper with the results of his AI system. It looked at more than 100 million tweets in before the last election. The report said:
‘These results provide not just a tool for generating survey like data, but also a method for investigating how what people say and think reflects, and perhaps even affects, their vote intentions.’
Rai named MogIA after the child from Rudyard Kipling’s novel Jungle Book, Mogli. Rai said his system pulls information from the internet and then makes it anonymous, which protects people’s privacy. He continued:
‘While most algorithms suffer from programmers/developer’s biases, MoglA aims at learning from her environment, developing her own rules at the policy layer, and developing expert systems without discarding any data.’
Just as the Jungle Book child learned. People can change the system’s prediction. All they have to do is get out the Clinton vote.
Check out this brief video about AI: