Early voting numbers are beginning to stream in, and they’re confirming what pollsters, analysts, and the Clinton campaign itself have been saying for weeks on end- Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is on track for a win.
These Clinton-positive numbers are coming in from the states which, numbers wise, have thrown the election into contention. If, for example, Clinton wins Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania- although the final state doesn’t seem to yet have reported early voting numbers- then she is well on track for a victory which will likely be of gigantic proportions.
If Trump wins those states on the other hand, than he is on track to possibly coming up with 270 electoral votes and thus winning the presidency come November.
CNBC gives a comprehensive breakdown of the early voting numbers coming out of North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, Ohio, and Arizona.
‘Democrats led Republicans by more than 13 percentage points [in North Carolina] by the end of October 23. Clinton looks like she is up in Virginia… on track to have higher numbers than President Barack Obama did in 2012. Iowa and Ohio look better for Donald Trump than they did for Mitt Romney… CNN reported that Clinton’s numbers in Arizona — which are also better than Obama’s in 2012 — might bring the typically red state into play as well.’
In Florida, the two major parties are in what amounts to a dead heat when it comes to new registrations and early voting numbers, numbers which hinge on reporting the party affiliation of those who have already cast their ballot.
University of Florida voter turnout expert Michael McDonald spoke to CNBC about some of what is apparently fueling the Clinton-positive early voting numbers, saying:
‘There is speculation that Trump’s rhetoric could entice Hispanics to vote against him, and there is some evidence in polls that Hispanic voting enthusiasm is running higher than normal.’
Other voting experts spoke to a similar trend among demographics such as African Americans.
What does voter enthusiasm have to do with early voting? It’s simple- eager-to-vote voters will likely jump at the first opportunity to cast their ballot, meaning during early voting.
Paul Gronke, the director of Reed College’s Early Voting Information Center, spoke to, for example, the same trend among African American voters, saying:
‘Trump continues to make statements that alienate African-American voters, and he struggles to get beyond 2 percent in some state polls. Under that circumstance, and faced with a well-oiled Democratic [get-out-the-vote] machine, why would African-American voters wait?’
Trump, for his part, has become increasingly desperate in recent weeks, as have Republican leaders around the country looking at their party getting stomped upon harder and harder as Election Day draws closer.
Trump has railed on and on about the election supposedly being “rigged,” while the only ones doing- or rather, attempting to do- any “rigging” are Republican electoral officials in states such as North Carolina, a state which has seen a great deal of legal turmoil over a voting ID law which leaders attempted to force upon the state, a law which was struck down on the basis that it was by design discriminatory against minority and low income populations who may not have ID according to the law’s standard.
The final weeks before Election Day thus, in short, amount a wait-and-see as to whether Clinton’s strong numbers will continue to hold in the face of Trump’s continuous self destructive rhetoric.