Donald Trump’s campaign received a bit of a boost when FBI Director James Comey sent an email to Congress claiming that he had found new emails that were relevant to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server, but it turns out that might not have been enough to save Trump’s campaign.
NBC has just released the latest version of its battleground map, and it shows Clinton with a clear lead. The map is broken down into categories of states that are very likely to vote for a particular nominee, states that lean towards a particular party’s nominee, and toss-up states. According to NBC, the Democratic and Democratic-leaning states would give Clinton 274 electoral votes, which would put her a slightly over the magic number of 270.
The six toss-up states are Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Utah. According to NBC, Trump could win all of those and still not have enough votes to win the White House, and Trump’s victory in those states is far from a sure thing although Arizona and Utah do lean more towards Trump than Clinton.
Assuming NBC’s model is accurate and Trump does, in fact, win all of the toss-up states, that would bring him to 264 electoral votes. This means he would need six more in order to win the presidency. In order to get those votes, he would need to turn one of the Democratic-leaning states red, which might be part of the reason he recently held a campaign rally in Michigan. At first glance, Motor City might seem like a natural fit for Trump’s message about restoring America’s manufacturing base, but the polls show him down six points.
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight wrote an article discussing Trump’s path to victory and, while there are some differences in regards to determining swing states, he agreed with the general analysis that Trump would need to pick off one of Clinton’s firewall states. Colorado, which NBC has categorized as leaning Democratic, is, according to Silver, Trump’s best bet. Assuming the popular vote is close, he gives the GOP nominee a 46 percent chance of winning the Centennial State. If Trump loses the popular vote by more than three points, then Silver sees no path to victory.