According to FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, Hillary Clinton is one state away from losing the election. Silver said that Clinton has a two point lead and she’s a 2-1 favorite, but warned that the electoral college math is less solid for Clinton than it was for President Obama in 2012.
At this point in the 2012 election, FiveThirtyEight had President Obama ahead in states totaling 320 electoral votes. Clinton, on the other hand, is ahead in states totaling 270, meaning she is only one state away from losing the presidency.
‘You’d rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump’s, but it’s not a terribly safe position.’
At the time of Silver’s interview with ABC, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 65.7 percent chance of winning the White House and gave Trump a 34.2 percent chance. Since that time, the numbers have adjusted a bit with Trump’s chances rising. The model, which is updated regularly, currently gives Trump a 35.7 percent chance of winning and Clinton a 64.2 percent change. The odds are still in Clinton’s favor, but this small uptick in Trump’s chances reflects the uncertainty of this election.
During the interview, Silver also discussed the party’s main voting blocs. According to him, it all comes down to voter turnout. The Democrats do have a larger base so that is good for them, but he noted that some groups, such as African-Americans, aren’t displaying the enthusiasm they’ve shown in past elections.
Trump’s path to victory relies on a few things. For starters, he needs to hope that voter turnout among traditionally Democratic blocs is lower than usual. Combined with that, if he can mobilize white working class voters and convince a few dissatisfied Republicans to return to the fold then he could win this election.
— ABC News (@ABC) November 6, 2016
Silver’s model, like any polling model, is not perfect, but it has been proven accurate in the past, such as when he correctly predicted President Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012. However, as he explained last month there are a number of assumptions built into his system that give a slight advantage to Trump.
Regardless of what FiveThirtyEight or any other site says, voter turnout is what will ultimately determine this election. Traditionally speaking, Democrats win when voter enthusiasm is high whereas Republicans win when Democrats stay home. Only time will tell if Clinton’s campaign is able to convince wary Democrats to get out the vote.
You can see part of Silver’s interview below:
— ABC News Politics (@ABCPolitics) November 6, 2016
Featured image via Twitter.