Fear is motivating Democrats to come out in record numbers, according to the POLITICO/Morning Consult Early Vote national poll, and so far Hillary Clinton is hammering Donald Trump. Plus, people who have already voted trust Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump on nearly every issue.
The comprehensive poll interviewed 2,263 people who either voted early in person or by mail. The results showed Democrats are voting in higher numbers than those voting Republican. While that is not especially unusual, it is significant that a full 6 percent more of the early voters are Democrats since the previous POLITICO poll.
Compared to the previous poll, independents are five percentage points lower, suggesting Democrats are pro-actively picking up the difference. Republicans’ early voting numbers are consistent with the Republican voting population.
The older early voter population is high: 28 percent compared to 22 percent in the previous likely voter poll. Hispanics are coming out in significantly high numbers: 12 percent compared to the last likely voter poll at 8 percent.
Not only is Clinton rousting Trump among early voters, she is ranking higher in trust on 11 different issues. These include issues that have traditionally been held by the Republicans, defense and the economy.
One-third of the early voters, which includes 66 percent of the Republicans, say they will be “scared” should Clinton win the election. On the other hand, 46 percent of early voters say they will be “scared” should Trump win. That number is a full 15 points higher. This includes 73 percent of the Democrats.
A full 50 percent of the early voters, a majority, indicate that they would either be “excited” or “optimistic” should Clinton take the win. In this category, Trump takes only 40 percent.
Another category in the poll is who these early voters believe will make a better first spouse. Nearly half of the poll’s participants — 49 percent — think former President Bill Clinton would make a good “first gentleman.” Melania Trump fares far less well. Only 37 percent of the early voters — 12 percent less — think she would make a good “first lady.”
The POLITICO/Morning Consult Early Voter polls randomly selected 10,748 registered voters, which included 2,263 people who voted early in person at a polling place or with a mail-in ballots. The poll was conducted online from Oct. 18 through Nov. 6.
Pollsters weighted the data to an approximate of a target sample of registered voters for age, race/ethnicity, educational attainment, region, and gender. The margin of error among the full early voter sample was 2 +\- percentage points.