In a recent poll by Public Policy Polling, Democrats would win big… IF… the election were held today. Right now Democrats are leading Republicans by a full 11 points on a generic congressional ballot. Unfortunately, we aren’t voting today, but the poll results are making a 2018 upset look more promising. The parameters for the poll:
‘Public Policy Polling surveyed 865 registered voters from September 22nd to 25th. The margin of error is +/-3.3%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel.’
President of Public Policy Polling, Dean Debman, said:
‘Democrats have been winning a lot of elections in 2017. And all indications are that they’re going to keep on winning a lot of elections in 2018.’
The poll asked a total of 69 questions, starting with “Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?” The aggregated results were gathered and determinations and projected outcomes of future elections were made based on the answers to the poll questions.
Surprisingly, the poll found that the on-going health care fighting is having a negative impact on Republicans and that the Affordable Care Act is experiencing a surge in popularity:
‘Only 27% of voters support the most recent Republican health care bill to 53% who oppose it. By contrast the Affordable Care Act continues to have new found popularity with 48% of voters in favor of it and 34% against. Asked which of the bills they prefer the Affordable Care Act beats out the Graham-Cassidy repeal bill 53-34, and only 32% of voters think the best path forward on health care is to repeal the Affordable Care Act while 62% think it’s best to keep it and makes fixes as necessary.
‘The health care debate is having a bad impact on Republicans electorally. By a 19 point margin voters say they’re less likely to support a member of Congress who voted for the health care repeal bill- 48% say they’re less likely to vote for such an incumbent next year to only 29% who say they’re more likely to.’
Perhaps the most astonishing fact pulled from the poll results was categorized by Debman:
‘We’re really not seeing any path to Donald Trump achieving a positive approval rating. Voters are unhappy with him about a lot of ongoing issues, and new ones seem to creep up in our polling every month as well.’
‘Voters also wish by a 52/41 margin that Barack Obama was still President instead of Trump.’
So it would appear that President Donald Trump will have to find other ways to stroke his insecure ego because voters want very little, if anything, to do with him. In other notes from the poll, it appears that Trump’s Mexican border wall will never be a happening thing:
‘Only 15% of voters think Mexico is actually going to pay for a wall with the United States, to 71% who don’t believe that’s going to happen. Even among Trump’s voters just 32% think he will be able to deliver on his promise to make Mexico pay for the wall. Most Americans don’t want the wall anyway though- just 33% support it to 56% who say they are opposed.’
Sean Spicer will probably remain unemployable for quite some time:
‘Sean Spicer has not been able to rehabilitate his image since leaving the White House. Only 23% of voters see him favorably to 41% who have an unfavorable opinion of him. Those numbers are a little worse even than the 24/37 spread he had in January right after prominently lying about the size of the crowd at Trump’s inauguration.’
And awards shows might be a thing of the past:
‘Finally we find that the Trump era has ushered in a huge divide among Americans…about awards shows. Overall there is a pretty dim view of awards shows, with 22% of voters seeing them favorably to 49% who have a negative opinion about them. Clinton voters have mixed feelings about them- 31% favorable, 31% unfavorable. But Trump voters absolutely hate them- just 11% see awards shows positively with 73% having an unfavorable opinion of them.’
While not a positive and sure gauge for the future, the results from this extensive poll are showing a trend in American politics — away from the showmanship of having an entertainer in the highest office in the land toward real political issues being seen in a new light. People seem to be waking up to the fact that things happening in Washington DC affect their day-to-day lives. Maybe people are starting to care again. Attendance at the voting booth in 2018 will be the real judge.