Several different factors play into the exit polls’ projection in the race for Alabama’s U.S. Senate seat. Polls show voter turnout based on race, gender, political ideologies, and perception of the scandals surrounding the Republican candidate, Roy Moore, are all playing a key role in voters’ decision.
At 9:35 PM EST, with 62 percent of precincts reporting, The New York Times is predicting a Doug Jones win.
‘Our estimates are based on the results reported so far, the results of previous elections and demographic data. Unlike reported results, they attempt to account for precincts that have not yet reported their votes. The shaded area in the gauge below shows the range of our forecasts.
‘Right now, our most likely estimates span Jones +14 to Moore +9. The more we know, the narrower our range will be.’
Alabama is a state that is 26.8 percent black and 69.3 percent white. Voter turnout was similar in those proportions. Democrats were already determined to need the black vote in Alabama in order to win the seat. As a decisively red state, Trump won the 2016 presidential election by more than 22 points with similar demographic voting patterns.
Share of black voters on par with portion of electorate in '08 '12 for #ALSEN @davidchalian @ryanstruyk https://t.co/yRAlHJZALQ
— Zach Wolf (@zbyronwolf) December 12, 2017
With President Trump’s approval rating currently at 33 percent, voters’ perception of his job performance was also expected to play heavily into the results of the election, especially considering Trump’s recent push to support Roy Moore. 29 percent of Alabama voters said that they voted for Moore on Tuesday in support of Trump, while 20 percent said they voted against Trump. Nearly half, 48 percent, said that Trump was not a factor in their decision.
Was Trump a factor? 29% cast a ballot to support him, according to PRELIM exit poll data. @davidchalian https://t.co/tOBIP0EgM2
— Zach Wolf (@zbyronwolf) December 12, 2017
With mounting controversies against Moore due to allegations of pedophilia, homophobia, and racism, polls were also expected to reflect variations as a result. However, many voters said they had already made up their minds before the charges of pedophilia were levied and many said the scandals did not factor into their decision.
Alabama voters split on allegations against Moore, exit polls indicate – ABC News – https://t.co/JeM8cLepoc via @ABC
— Travis Knoll (@tknoll209K) December 13, 2017
In early projections, Moore still holds the lead with 56 percent of precincts reporting.
Polls closed at 8 PM EST, so results will be updated throughout the evening.
Featured image via Getty/Joe Raedle
