Democrats have been furiously preparing for the 2018 midterms in hopes of gaining back control of Congress. Many races are underway and it is projected that Democrats are well on their way to win back the House. Meredith Kelly, a Democratic spokesperson, said in a recent email interview:
‘The DCCC is absolutely prepared to seize upon whatever political opportunities are before us in November. With strong Democratic candidates and well-oiled campaigns in over 60 districts, and recruiting still ongoing until the last filing deadline, there is no question that we will be ready to benefit from Republican dysfunction and win big in November.’
Now, a new American Barometer poll conducted on August 12-13 supports this, showing that Democrats now have a double-digit lead over Republicans on the generic ballot ahead of the November elections. The survey, which was conducted by Hill.TV and HarrisX polling company found that 43 percent of those polled said they would vote for a Democratic candidate versus 32 percent of respondents who said they would vote for a Republican candidate.
This percentage remains unchanged since a Harvard Caps Harris Poll was conducted in July, which also showed that 43 percent of respondents said they would vote for a Democratic candidate in the ballot box. The most recent poll though shows that support for a Republican candidate has dropped four points since then.
Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion said:
‘There’s a difference in enthusiasm. Democrats [are] much more eager to come to the poll than Republicans. [It’s] sort of a flip of 2010, the Tea Party year, when the Republicans were much more active, and much more enthusiastic.’
He went on to say:
‘These generic ballot questions are tapping into that, although, ultimately in November it’s district by district, and there’s no national election. So the generic may slightly distort what might occur in November.’
Democrats will need to flip 24 GOP-held seats in order to take back control of The House. According to The Cook Political Report, three Republican-held districts are likely to be won by Democrats, and another seven lean towards Democrats.
The report also lists 35 GOP-held seats as toss-ups while only 3 currently held Democratic seats are listed as toss-ups. At this point, there is only one House seat that was listed as leaning or likely Republican.
Although Democrats are optimistic and would like to win the Senate as well, it will be even tougher to achieve. Democrats need to hold on to over two dozen seats that are up for reelection in November, and flip at least two Republican-held seats.
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