President Donald Trump maintains — at least publicly — that his party is cruising to major victories in the midterm elections later this year, but new polling indicates the exact opposite impending outcome. In some three polls, his approval rating has dropped into the 30s, meaning that — according to those pollsters at least — somewhere around just one-third of the American population stands behind him.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that only 36 percent of Americans approve of Trump, which is their lowest reported level since January of this year, when he also registered a 36 percent approval in the poll’s tabulation. It’s also a drop of 7 percent from the most recent ABC/WaPo poll, which came out in July.
A poll released by Investor’s Business Daily also has Trump with a 36 percent approval rating, which is lower than their last estimation of his approval. In addition, a Kaiser Family Foundation poll apparently has him with a 37 percent approval rating.
Still, Trump is hardly about to let up in his aims to hype his base up and cast himself as a savior.
Wednesday, for instance, he wrote on Twitter:
‘Almost everyone agrees that my Administration has done more in less than two years than any other Administration in the history of our Country.’
Trump either doesn’t know how detached from reality his claim of the support of “almost everyone” is or doesn’t care. Just looking at the numbers, it’s not even as though apart from the three aforementioned polls he’s ever registered the approval of the majority of the country. His approval highs are in the 40s — which, CNN analyst Harry Enten explains, is barely enough to give the GOP a springboard to use in their effort to hold onto control of the U.S. House in the midterms.
At present, FiveThirtyEight (which Enten has been associated with) asserts Democrats have a 7 in 9 chance of winning the lower Congressional chamber in November — although, technically, Republicans do still have a chance of maintaining control.
That could be vaporizing, though.
Trump’s approval rating and Democratic leading margins in generic Congressional ballot polling have a negative correlation — when the first goes down, the second goes up. In the end, Democrats’ leading polling margins have been close to the margin by which Trump’s disapproval leads his approval in polls.
If Trump’s approval rating keeps sinking beyond the low 40s point it’s been recently, that means more House pickups for Democrats. Enten estimates that adding a couple percentage points towards Democrats’ national leading margin in House ballots to correlate to Trump’s approval drop could leave the left picking up some 45 seats — or more, which would approach the largest Democratic Congressional gains since 1948.
There are barely two months to go until the midterms are over — hardly enough time for the president’s approval rating to dip and have a massive turnaround. Trump has attempted to cast his party’s relative success in some Congressional special elections as indicative of a broader pro-GOP trend, but that barely holds up to scrutiny. In an Ohio district he won by some 11 percent in 2016, a recent Republican special election candidate barely eked out a victory, and in a Pennsylvania district he won by more, the Democrat won and is now in Congress.
In other words, the GOP may be heading for a wake-up call.
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