The midterm elections in November are only getting closer at this point. There’s a pretty wide-ranging consensus at this point that Democrats are going to become the majority party in the U.S. House post-midterms, but there’s less of a consensus about what’s going to happen in the U.S. Senate. No matter, the odds keep stacking up in the Democrats’ favor.
In order to become the Senate’s majority party, Democrats might have to hold onto every one of their currently-held seats and pick up two more, with prime pick-up candidates including Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee. If Democrats sweep all three of those seats, then they’re free to lose one they currently hold and still become the Senate’s majority party.
Polls in all three of the aforementioned toss-up states have Democrats solidly in the running. Ahead of the Arizona primary elections on August 28, polling had Democrat Kyrsten Sinema with a four to eight percent lead over the Republican who eventually became her general election challenger, Martha McSally. (They’re running for the seat to be vacated at the end of this current Congress by Senator Jeff Flake.)
In Tennessee, more recent polling had Democrat and former Governor Phil Bredesen leading his general election challenger Republican Marsha Blackburn by two percent. Bredesen’s name recognition and already in place popularity among Tennessee voters could give him the edge he needs to succeed — his approval rating has been registered as 37 percent. Although that measurement came back in 2017 — and was pretty close to Blackburn’s approval rating — Bredesen still sported an eight percent leading margin of members of the public who approve of him versus those who disapprove.
The race for the Nevada seat currently held by Republican Dean Heller remains close. A poll released in late July had Heller just one percent ahead of Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen, which is a virtually irrelevant supposed lead that could be gone in the blink of an eye. Indeed, the RealClearPolitics average of relevant polls has Rosen ahead of Heller, although by less than one percent.
There’s other potential good news for Democrats out there too. In a couple of their currently-held but vulnerable Senate seats, they’re leading Republican challengers. Recently released polling has incumbent Missouri Democrat Claire McCaskill with a two percent lead over Republican Josh Hawley and Indiana Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly with a three to six percent lead over Republican Mike Braun.
There’s also the matter of Texas. In that traditionally very red state, incumbent Republican Ted Cruz is running for re-election to the U.S. Senate and facing a credible general election challenge in Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
A recent poll had Cruz with just a one percent lead over the currently serving Democratic Congressman — which, as in Heller’s case, is a virtually irrelevant lead that might as well be considered non-existent. Trump administration official Mick Mulvaney acknowledged in a recent private meeting that Cruz could lose his Senate race — and NBC’s Meet The Press team quips:
‘FYI: If Democrats somehow win Texas, they’re definitely winning the Senate.’
The future for Trump-ian politics in America just gets dimmer and dimmer.
Featured image via YouTube screenshot