Donald Trump has been arguing that this 2018 midterm election is all about him. He has been heavy on the campaign trail. Yet, POTUS may not be helping the Republican candidates in the states where he has been barnstorming. The Florida governor race shows how bad things have been going for Republicans.
In the latest Quinnipiac University Poll, Florida’s governor race, Andrew Gillum is ahead of Rick DeSantis by a strong seven points. Not only that the Democratic incumbent Senator Bill Nelson has been holding firm against Governor Rick Scott (R) 51 to 44 percent just one day prior to the midterm elections.
Independent voters plus women have been behind those double-digit leads. The black and Hispanic voters got even better results. Nelson leads 54 to 41 percentage vote for independent voters. The senator pulls ahead with a 91 to 4 percent lead among Democrats. When it comes to Republicans, they have a similar response, Scott leads 94 to 4 percentage points.
Among women, they vote for Democrats 53 percentage points to 41 percent. Men show up much differently. An equal 48 percent go to Nelson and 47 percent go to Scott.
Among white voters, Scott comes out with a 55 to 41 percent lead. Among black voters, Nelson takes the lead 87 percentage points to 6 percent. Among Hispanic voters, Nelson has a 59 percent to 31 percent lead.
Only 5 percent of Floridians are still undecided, and just 20 percent of that group say they might change their mind by Election Day, especially if they knew the candidates’ names.
Assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, Peter Brown said:
‘Democrats Sen. Bill Nelson and Mayor Andrew Gillum have identical seven-point leads entering the final hours before Election Day in the races to be the next governor and U.S. senator from Florida.’
Brown continued, noting Nelson’s 13-point lead among independents:
‘Sen. Nelson has a 13-point edge among independent voters. Candidates with double- digit leads among independents rarely lose. There is little difference in the two races. Both leaders ran up double-digit leads among women; whites went heavily for the GOP candidates while non-whites went even more so for the Democrats.’
When it comes to the Florida gubernatorial race, Tallahassee Mayor Gillum is ahead of the previous U.S. Representative DeSantis 50 percentage points to 43 percent, among likely voters.
It seems, the governor’s race is similar to the Senate race. Among women, Gillum leads 54 percentage points to 40 percent. Men have been running even 46 percent to 46 percent. Among white voters, DeSantis wins 54 percent to 41 percent. Among black voters, Gillum takes the lead with a whopping 90 percent to 4 percent. Among Hispanic voters, Gillum takes 57 percent to 29 percent.
Among independents, Gillum was ahead 52 percentage point to 39 points. Among Democrats, he comes in 93 percentage points to 4 percent. Of course, Republicans carry DeSantis 93 percentage points to 4 percent.
‘Mayor Andrew Gillum and his challenger, former Congressman Ron DeSantis, are running exactly the same, 93 – 4 percent among self-identified members of each of their respective parties. But Gillum’s 13-point margin among independents is the difference in the outcome.’
Quinnipiac conducted its poll from October 29 to November 4 and interviewed 1,142 likely Florida voters. The margin of error was +/- 3.5 percentage points. Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. conducted the survey with live interviews obtained by using random digit dialing.
Featured image is a screenshot via YouTube.