Donald Trump should be worried, very worried. Sure, he has had his most deeply ingrained followers, but even they are not sacrosanct, because at least one of the candidates could take a deep bite out of this population. A new Emerson Poll of Democratic Primary voters in Texas shows how fragile POTUS’ seat in the Oval Office truly is.
The newest Emerson Poll found that former vice president Joe Biden (D-DE) came in with 23 percent of the vote compared to Trump, should the 2020 presidential election be held today. Texas’ own former U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) had 22 percent of the vote. Even Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) won in double digits.
There were others who made their mark in the poll: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) won eight percent, Senator Elizabeth Warren, who will be 70-years-old in June (D-MA) took seven percent, and former HUD secretary for Barack Obama and another Texan Julian Castro (D-TX) pulled in four percent of the vote.
When it came to a one-on-one race for the general election, Trump had a real problem. In Texas:
‘(He is in a) statistical dead heats with four of the top six Democratic opponents and leads the other two’
Take Biden versus Donald Trump. The two men are pulling in nearly identical numbers. Biden had 50 percent and Trump took 49 percent. When Texas native O’Rourke went up against the president, he won 50 percent of the vote, and Trump took 50 percent, too.
In a major surprise, two other presidential candidates came within the statistical margin of error. Trump received 51 percent of the vote, and Sanders got 49 percent. Trump took 53 percent of the vote against Senator Warren, who took 47 percent. In a race against Trump, the president took 54 percent, and Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) brought in 46 percent of the vote as did Mayor Buttigieg.
Earlier in the year, O’Rourke looked like a stronger contender against Trump. However, Director of the Emerson Poll Spencer Kimball said:
‘It looks like Beto O’Rourke does not have Texas locked up. Bernie Sanders had trouble back in 2016 in southern states, including losing Texas by 32 points (65% to 33%) to Hillary Clinton, so it will be exciting to see who can capture the Lone Star state in next March’s key Super Tuesday contest.’
O’Rourke did the best against Hispanic voters with 32 percent of their support. Both O’Rourke and Biden were ahead among white voters with 22 percent each. In the black vote, Biden led with 40 percent of the support.
In Texas, Trump has a 46 percent approval rating and a 44 percent disapproval rating. The president’s only Republican contender Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld, did poorly. Trump had 87 percent to Weld’s 13 percent. Of course, Weld does not have much name recognition at this point.
Texas voters between the ages of 18 and 29 chose Sanders with 34 percent of their vote. O’Rourke led in voters between the ages of 30 and 49 with 31 percent, and Biden was ahead with voters between the ages of 50 and 64 pulling in 29 percent and with those over the age of 65 by 36 percent.
The Emerson poll was conducted from April 25 to 28, 2019 among 342 Democratic primary voters. The margin of error was +/- 5.3 percent, which is a larger margin of error than many like polls have.